Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Natural avalanches could occur on sunlit slopes as sun warms the snowpack. You'll most likely find this problem in steep, rocky and sunny terrain. These slab avalanches could be 1-3' thick and easily bury a person.  You could trigger a similar avalanche in steep, shady terrain. Recreating on slopes under 30 degrees is your best bet today.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Weak snow varies in depth from 1-3 feet in this zone depending on elevation and wind affect.  The weak layer of snow is very weak and has a firm slab sitting on top, which is a classic recipe for an avalanche. Despite the past ten days of mostly dry weather, it is still possible to trigger an avalanche  on most steep slopes,  particularly on those warmed and weakened by the sun today. The large natural avalanche pictured is a great example of this type of problem. The threat of natural wet loose avalanches has passed but they could be triggered if you ride steep slopes.

    Warm temperatures will also make shadier slopes more sensitive to triggering. The last snowfall in the area that occured on the 17th-18th triggered lots of natural avalanches, many of them were D2 or large enough to bury a person. Since then, the snowpack has adjusted to the new snow load to some degree, but adding more weight, such as a snowmachine or skier on a steep slope could cause the slab to fail, possibly from the bottom or beside a slope.

     

    (1/30/2024)

    This slope at 9,400 feet failed widely in the afternoon of January 30th.  After two days of above freezing temps, water flowing through the snowpack reached down to the weak layer of facets, or possibly a crust with facets, and tipped over the first domino in the weak layer.

    Photo: Frank Carus

Avalanche Discussion

Lots of variables are at play when thinking about warming events that could trigger an avalanche. Clearing cloud cover, thin cloud cover, calm winds and terrain and vegetation configuration all contribute to the extent of the heating needed to melt snow. Subtle variations in all of those make a difference. The good news is that the signs of instability due to heating are pretty obvious; wet snow surfaces, snow falling from tree branches, small wet avalanches or water in your snowpit are all signs of trouble. More good news is that the riding and skiing on newly wet snow is worth avoiding for reasons other than avalanches.  There are plenty of reasons to carefully choose lower angle terrain today. Here are a few more bullet points to help you stay out of trouble.

  1. Avoiding steep connected slopes, convexities, and thin areas in the snowpack.
  2. Using safe travel techniques including traveling one at a time in suspect terrain and using safe zones to regroup.
  3. Avoiding terrain traps with steep slopes above.
  4. Stay off of slopes where snow has become wet, slushy and isothermal. 

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