Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Very large, destructive wet avalanches are still likely with the sustained warm temperatures and additional light rain. These avalanches are tricky and extremely hard to predict. The best option is to choose low angle forested terrain, well away from the runouts of large, overhead avalanche paths. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Practice conservative travel and avoid being on or near large, steep terrain features. Give yourself large margins of safety from potential runout zones. Wet slab avalanches can run further and break wider than you may expect. You may or may not see obvious signs, like whumphing collapses, before triggering an avalanche. Simply avoiding steep terrain is your safest option.We feel entrenched in a prolonged period of instability for very large and dangerous wet slab avalanches. Continued vigilance and patience are essential until we see significantly colder temperatures. There were multiple wet avalanches throughout the zone over the weekend, and although temperatures will begin to cool, it won't be enough to change conditions much. A skier was caught and carried in a very large avalanche at Mission Ridge on Sunday (more information below) that began just above the Solstice Crust and scoured down to the ground. Professionals around Holden observed very large wet avalanches that ran naturally on both Sunday and Monday. A skier triggered an avalanche on the Solstice Crust at nearby Stevens Pass. Continued above-freezing temperatures will maintain the notoriously unpredictable nature of these Wet slab avalanches. Smaller wet loose avalanches or cornice falls can also trigger these very large and destructive avalanches.

    (1/28/2024)

    Very Large wet avalanche that ran naturally on 1/28 in the Icicle River Drainage.

    Photo: Erik Soldenwagner

Avalanche Discussion

Temperatures are on a slow cooling trend but don't expect anything below freezing just yet. 

Many natural and skier-triggered, very large avalanches (D2.5-3) were reported throughout the zone and in neighboring zones over the weekend. An avalanche failing on the Solstice Crust and gouging down to depth hoar on the ground at Mission Ridge indicates that we still have weak snow capable of producing very large avalanches, even after multiple days of warm temperatures and rain. As natural avalanche activity tapers off, you could still trigger one of these nasty avalanches. With scary, hard-to-predict avalanches, the take-home point is that until the snowpack experiences below-freezing temperatures, the potential for very large wet slabs remains. 

Faceted snow over the Solstice Crust was the persistent weak layer involved in multiple skier-triggered avalanches earlier in January, and activity on this layer only increased as temperatures warmed. When it began to rain, reports of very large avalanches running on deeply buried weak layers came in from nearly every zone in our forecast area. The overall weak structure of our snowpack set us up for the current prolonged period of instability. Even with an entrenchment mindset, practice patience and make conservative travel decisions for lower-angle slopes without exposure to overhead hazards.

Statement from Mission Ridge Ski Patrol regarding the inbounds avalanche on Sunday: At approximately 12:09 p.m., an avalanche occurred on the run Nertz within the ski area boundary. The area of the avalanche is accessed via the Wenatchee Express chairlift, which is also referred to as Chair 2. Three guests were in the area of the slide, but none were buried. No other guests or staff are believed to have been on the run at the time. A thorough search of the area has been conducted out of an abundance of caution, including utilizing Recco devices and an avalanche rescue dog from Stevens Pass. At this time, there have not been any reports of missing skiers, and the skiers involved in the slide did not see any other skiers in the vicinity. 

If you get out, let us know what you see by submitting a public observation!

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