Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Large avalanches from heavy/wet snow will be likely due to rain and warm temperatures on all elevations and aspects. We also have weak layers buried deep in our snowpack at mid and upper elevations. Carefully assess the snowpack, and if in doubt, avoid slopes over 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    With overnight temperatures above freezing and more rain in the forecast, wet slabs will continue to be likely for Sunday. These avalanches will have the potential to be large and destructive. Wet slabs occur when free water percolates through the snowpack to a weak layer or ground. Signs of wet slabs include seeing recent wet slab avalanches, wet loose avalanches, pin wheels, and saturated snow. If you see these signs, it is best to avoid slopes 30 degrees or steeper, and avoid being in the runout zone.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    For Sunday, triggering a cornice will be likely. Rain and warm temperatures have weakened the snow and can cause cornices to break naturally. Cornices will also break easily by the weight of a human. Don’t get caught off guard. Cornices often break back further than expected, so it is best to give cornices plenty of room.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    We have a few weak layers that formed early in the winter that are now buried deep in our snowpack (around 6ft deep). These layers have been found near and above treeline on westerly, northerly, and easterly slopes. This avalanche type is tricky because we do not get feedback such as whumpfing or collapsing. This problem is unlikely to trigger, but if triggered, it will be catastrophic. It is best to avoid large/unsupported slopes and shallow rocky areas in steep terrain.

Avalanche Discussion

On Saturday I toured at Santiam Pass. In the morning it was raining lightly and visibility was limited. I found the upper snowpack to be wet and saturated. Rollerballs were easily triggered on steep slopes. At one point I stepped out of my skis and sank to my knees in wet snow. I did not see any recent avalanches nor did I find any persistent weak layers in the location I dug (north aspect  4,900ft).

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