Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger has increased overnight with the final pulse of precipitation delivered by this week's winter storm.  Avalanches could be triggered today by skiers or riders in steep cross-loaded terrain or locations where snow has filled-in small terrain features.  If you experience shooting cracks, whumphing, or areas of heavy snow over lighter snow, choose a less steep and more protected route. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    High winds and incoming snow have developed wind slabs in specific areas.  Obvious isolated wind drifts can be found in cross-loaded terrain and below ridgelines.  Be on the lookout for potentially reactive but less obvious wind affected slopes, where wind transported snow has loaded midslope bowls and starting zones.  Avoid steep wind textured and wind hardened slopes where harder snow overlays lighter snow.  

    Winds were high to extreme overnight and have likely stripped some areas of the recent storm snow and loaded other zones.  Wind direction may have shifted from SW to N throughout the night, and may continue to shift today, so anticipate both isolated and specific wind slab on nearly all aspects and elevations.   If you experience shooting cracks, hollow sounding snow, or shearing change your travel route and travel plans to lower angle and less wind exposed slopes.  

     

    (2/19/2026)

    This D2 avalanche occured yesterday, likely in wind-loaded terrain, on a N facing chute of Fremont Peak.   If you find wind-textured and loaded starting zones, avoid these areas and choose a different travel route.

    Photo: Troy Marino

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Multiple weak layers are present in specific areas of the forecast zone and snowpack.  (View yesterday's archived forecast for a discussion of the distribution and type of PWLs that have been identified in the last month).  The chance of triggering this type of avalanche is small, due to its more localized distribution and sensitivity, but these weak layers are buried deeper in the snowpack and avalanches of this type could be as large as D 2.5, big enough to easily bury a skier or rider.

    Most PWLs of concern are located at and below tree line on north facing slopes.  Other PWLs are located below the Holiday Ice Lens (HIL) and would be very difficult to trigger due to the strength of the HIL. 

Avalanche Discussion

The final pulse of our mid-February storm cycle delivered between 4 and 7 inches overnight.  That's the good news.  The bad news, is that once again it arrived with moderate to strong winds. 

This storm did not come in as vigorous as anticipated, but expect increased avalanche hazard across the mountain, with the wind sculpting a wide variety of surface and snowpack conditions.  A combination of wind slab and storm slab are covering isolated and specific areas over various aspects, elevations and microclimates.  Be on the lookout for loaded slopes, starting zones and cross-loaded gullies, with varying sensitivity.

Snowpack has been thin to variable across this storm, so expect a variety of conditions and avalanche hazard on specific slopes and loading zones.  This is a good time for conservative decision making and general skepticism as avalanche hazard is varying from slope to slope.  If you're entering an unknown snowpack, dig a pit, examine structure, and do a round of stability tests before committing to skiing or riding a slope.  Travel one at a time and keep eyes on each other. Yesterday, a natural avalanche was observed in a N facing side-path of Telemark on Fremont Peak, and ski patrol mitigation efforts released a D 1.5 slide on a WNW slope.  

This storm's snow is falling on a complex snowpack that includes several potential persistent weak layers, which you should be aware of if traveling into the backcountry. A brief season rewind: a significant storm impacted the Peaks in late November, followed by a generally dry and warm December. This period produced basal facets, although warmer periods moderated facet development. This dry period was followed by two significant rain events over the Holidays, which have plagued the season with the dreadful Holiday Ice Layer (HIL).  Following the Holidays, we have had several smaller storms that have fallen on top of the HIL, but this snow was often redistributed, stripping windward upper-elevation aspects, leaving the ice crust exposed. In areas that have maintained this newer snow, subsequent dry conditions have allowed it to facet, creating near-surface facets. These events have created a complex snowpack that contains two persistent weak-layer problems (e.g., near-surface facets and basal facets), each with its own distribution, and, if overloaded with new snow, could facilitate large avalanches.

Snow pits on Tuesday yielded ECTP9 at 15 cm and ECTP10 at 30 cm below the surface. Both broke at density changes in the new snow, highlighting potential instabilities.  Snow pits yesterday in the Humphrey's Cirque yielded results of ECTN 18 and ECTX.  Hence, the emphasis on the wide range of stability in the forecast area.

West winds have dominated the past four days, leaving less appealing conditions on the ski area side and improved conditions in the Inner Basin.  Continue to be prepared for challenging travel conditions, including rocks, trees, bare ground, and, (a season favorite), blue ice.  Traveling with ski crampons, crampons, or an ice axe is now a little less imperative, but still a wise plan.  For more information on conditions check out the latest observations.  

Remember that many south-facing slopes and areas above treeline have been stripped and melted to the ground or rock over the last few weeks. This new snow will hide many of the rocks and obstacles just below the surface.  Ski and ride with care, and watch for small avalanches or unusual conditions that could carry a skier or rider over steep or rocky terrain. 

If you get out, please submit your observations or email us at [email protected]. 

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