Avalanche forecast

Northern Gallatin Range

Gallatin NF Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

3-7 inches of new snow since Tuesday plus strong winds yesterday will maintain dangerous avalanche conditions in the alpine areas above 9500’ today. The danger is less below that elevation but it’s still pretty tricky with many buried weak layers lurking about a foot deep. Wind loaded slopes will be places where avalanches are most likely. Seek out slopes sheltered from the wind, but consider doing careful terrain and snowpack assessments before getting onto slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2
  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    These avalanches are most likely on slopes loaded by west and southwest winds.

Avalanche Discussion

In the past week, there have been 38 avalanches recorded, 6 people caught, 4 partial burials, 2 full burials, and 1 tragic fatality (avalanche activity log). This activity was concentrated in the Island Park, Lionhead, Cooke City, and Southern Madison areas. Yesterday’s activity was near Cooke City which had winds like everywhere else but more snow.

What’s going on in the snowpack? It’s been an odd season for sure.

  1. Dry weather in most of January and the first week of February created a widespread weak layer of faceted snow on the snow surface. 
  2. A storm Feb 8th & 9th capped this layer, then 4 days of dry weather faceted/weakened that snow creating a second weak layer in some places.
  3. Surface hoar formed on top of the snowpack  in many areas during those periods of dry weather as well. Most notably Dave found it buried everywhere in the Portal Creek area of the Northern Gallatin Range, but we have found it mixed in with other faceted layers in other places sporadically.
  4. All these weak layers exist on southerly facing slopes but also have ice crusts in the mix.
  5. Snow falling Feb 15-19th (strong winds on the 17th) built a slab on these weak layers with the most avalanches and most snowfall occurring near Island Park & West Yellowstone.
  6. Yesterday more avalanches happened near Cooke City which got the most snow plus the winds that all areas received. View avalanches on Henderson1Miller, Scotch Bonnet, and Henderson2.

As you can imagine, all this weather has created two overlapping avalanche problems - wind slabs and persistent slabs. The avalanche danger has varied across the forecast area based on snowfall and wind (more snow and/or more wind -> higher danger).

Where does that leave us today?

In the Southern Gallatin and Madison Ranges, near Cooke City, near Island Park, and in the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone; avalanche activity + snowfall + wind + widespread weak layers all add up to dangerous avalanche conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger. There aren’t too many slopes in these areas where you can do careful assessments and confidently get into steeper terrain. I’d simply ride slopes less than 30 degrees in steepness to have fun and not worry about avalanches. 

The Northern Gallatin and Madison Ranges have gotten less snow thus the danger has generally been less. Seeking sheltered slopes is a good start, but there are buried weak layers to worry about. Watch Ian’s video from Tuesday as he describes the riding options. At upper elevations the danger remains CONSIDERABLE due to winds, and MODERATE at lower elevations.

The Bridger Range has had only one possible persistent slab avalanche about 10 days ago that was small. In the Bridgers, the main strategy has been to avoid recently formed wind slabs. Yesterday,the Bridger Ski Patrol triggered many 4-6” deep wind slabs and pillows at the ridge level with a few up to 12” deep. The danger in the Bridger Range is MODERATE today at upper elevations.

Regions covered