Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Dangerous avalanche conditions exist, and we have observed an impressive streak of large destructive avalanches within the last week. Poor snowpack structure is found on all aspects, and strong winds on Wednesday will transport the recent snow onto sensitive slabs that are now 2 to 4 feet thick. Conservative terrain selection, wide margins of safety, and an avoidance mindset are essential to avoid being caught off guard by a large dangerous avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Slab depths over fragile persistent weak layers are now 2 to 4 feet deep. This means, avalanches breaking in any one of our suspect weak layers below - multiple surface hoar layers or faceted crusts - are more than capable of producing an avalanche large enough to bury, injure, or kill a person. These dangerous slabs slowly formed during incremental snowfall in February, and have more recently reached a critical mass threshold. The most recent snow load did not provide the major gut punch to the snowpack we had hoped for to provoke a widespread natural cycle. Instead, the snowpack on many slopes was pushed toward the edge without completely falling apart. Even though we have now passed the peak of instability, these slabs remain in place waiting to be provoked by a rider or machine.As the overlying slab has become thicker and more connected across terrain features, we observed an uptick in size for both natural and human-triggered avalanches. Clear warning signs like long-shooting cracks and audible collapses continue to be reported well away from the slope that avalanches. This classically describes the unpredictable, remote-trigger behavior of Persistent Slab avalanches. Because of this, it’s not enough to simply avoid traveling on steeper slopes, but it’s also imperative to avoid traveling in lower-angled terrain with steeper, bigger hazards directly above.

    (2/22/2026)

    This avalanche was triggered by throwing a block of snow over the ridge onto the start zone. This speaks volumes to the fragile nature of the snowpack, and the sensitivity will only increase with new snow and strong winds.Credit: Essex Prescott.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    A forecasted uptick in winds at upper elevations will transport enough snow to form sensitive wind slabs near ridgetops. Gusts as high as 40mph out of the west, with ample low-density snow from the most recent storm on the surface, will load the lee side of ridges and terrain features. Telltale signs of new wind slabs are chalky or Styrofoam like pillows and surface snow density changes.It's worth mentioning that the fresh wind slabs are presently just the cherry on the persistent slab cake. While these wind slabs are likely to be small, the real danger lies in a wind slab avalanche stepping down into our more dangerous persistent weak layers. The prospect of being entrained in a large to very large avalanche should be enough to steer you away from steep start zones today.

    (2/16/2026)

    Human-triggered Wind Slab avalanche while walking along the ridgeline above. North Aspect near 6600 feet. Selkirk Mountains. February 16, 2026.

    Photo: Jackson George

Avalanche Discussion

During the last 10 days, we received reports of at least 25 avalanches across all of the forecast zones, most of which were triggered by people. Incremental loading that began on February 14th, has been adding pressure to our buried weak layers and keeping them near the edge of the breaking point. So far, each passing storm has not delivered the kick in the teeth needed to provoke a widespread natural cycle. Tuesday’s moments of clear and sunny skies offered field teams good visibility into lots avalanche terrain, but we were eerily surprised to see mostly unscathed slopes with only a few older remnant crowns and debris piles.

Short lived breaks in the weather are helping the snowpack to recover and find equilibrium. However, the avalanche danger remains elevated for human triggering on Wednesday, and we are uncertain how long it might take for us to feel comfortable stepping out or being below steep slopes again. What we do know for certain is that day is not this day. This day is a good day to stay back, continue assessing the snowpack, and enjoy the soft riding conditions on gentle non-avalanche terrain. After two weeks of on-and-off snowfall, the weak layers are now buried 2 to 4 feet in places, and the resulting avalanches have shown potential to break widely across start zones and be large and destructive enough to cause significant damage to trees and other vegetation.

Looking ahead, there are a few things that could slowly give us some confidence in our poorly structured snowpack: 1) A prolonged period without reported avalanche activity and other signs of instability. 2) Enough consistent and steady snowfall to limit the formation of new weak layers, while deeply burying and settling the snowpack into our old ones. And 3) The inability to produce propagating test results in snowpack tests. Currently, none of those confidence building measures are in place, which keeps the danger at CONSIDERABLE (3of5) across all of the forecast zones. We advise that you continue to exercise caution, be conservative in your terrain selection, and be patient as we wait for the avalanche danger to hopefully subside.

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