Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

An unusual and weak upper snowpack, more snow, gusty winds, long shooting cracks, and suspicious avalanches all point toward the same thing… dangerous and tricky avalanche conditions. All steep open slopes are suspect. Look for lower angled and lower consequence terrain to enjoy the fresh snow.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Don’t ignore the obvious. Recent human triggered avalanches, long shooting cracks, and well documented persistent weak layers are all clear red flags. While the recent activity has generally been isolated to wind loaded terrain, as temperatures warm and more snow falls, that could change. This avalanche problem will be hard to pin down, assess, and manage. Choosing simple, low consequence slopes is the best option. Avalanches could break widely, occur low on the slope, or trigger remotely.

    You can use small slopes, snowpack tests, and hand pits to look for and assess these persistent weak grains, but they can’t tell you if any particular area is safe. They can only confirm the presence of the unstable snow. Based on NWAC forecasters' recent field days, buried surface hoar and facets aren’t hard to find in the West South zone. 

    Even if the persistent grains don’t rear their ugly heads, strong and gusty winds formed firm slabs in more exposed terrain. These wind loaded slopes could easily produce an avalanche big enough to bury you. They aren’t something to tango with.

    (2/21/2026)

    A shooting crack in wind loaded terrain in the Crystal backcountry. 

    Photo: Northwest Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche Burial: At around 12:00 pm on Thursday, February 19th, a group of snowmobilers were riding near the Shoestring Glacier on Mt Saint Helens. On their second pass across a slope, two riders were traveling together when they triggered a large avalanche. Unknown to the first rider, the second was fully buried by the slide. Once realizing their friend was missing, the team quickly initiated an avalanche rescue. They located the buried rider with an avalanche transceiver and a probe strike. When they initially reached his airway, he was purple and not breathing. After several rescue breaths, the rider began breathing on his own and eventually regained consciousness. The buried rider was able to ride out under his own power with no injuries. Avalanche: HS-AM-R2-D2-U, NE, 6000 ft.

Discussion:

These storms may seem like nothing special and no big deal, but the upper snowpack is far from normal and not something we frequently deal with here in the PNW. Several well documented weak layers exists. Long (12-15ft) shooting cracks were seen in the Cyrstal Backcountry on Saturday. While unconfirmed, the recent Mt Saint Helens avalanche burial and recovery certainly suggests persistent snow grains were involved. In the nearby Snoqualmie Pass zone, on Saturday several additional human triggered avalanches also look suspiciously like they failed on older snow layers. At the end of the day, all these things point towards the same thing… the layers we’ve been writing about for a week are finally coming to life. Additional snow, warming temperatures, and gusty winds certainly won’t help matters. 

Here’s a general breakdown of the weak layers in the upper snowpack. 

  • Northerly Aspects: We’re worried about the snow above the first prominent (but rotting) crust (2/7). You may find weak sugary facets above or below this layer. Four to six inches higher, a dull gray line often indicates buried surface hoar (2/13 interface). Even if you don’t find feather surface hoar, you may find more facets at this interface. Lastly, right at the base of the new snow, the latest  2/21 interface could contain small facets or preserved stellars. 
  • Southerlies: Many of the weak grains that formed on the surface were destroyed by sunshine and replaced with crusts. Look for weak facets just above these firmer layers. While the snowpack is more complex in shaded terrain, persistent slabs could occur on sunny aspects too. 

It’s late February, but someone forgot to tell the snowpack. It’s thin, especially at lower elevations and in the trees. Open creeks, random holes, and downed logs make many routes long and meandering. Give yourself extra time to deal with the persistent travel hazards.

Regions covered