Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A person may still trigger a very large avalanche failing on a weak layer of snow buried 2 to 5' deep. This setup is difficult to assess and may not show any warning signs despite the dangerous conditions. Given the high uncertainty with the sensitivity of this snowpack, and the serious consequences of triggering an avalanche, the best way to manage this problem is to limit time spent traveling on or below steep terrain.

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CHUGACH STATE PARK: Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in Chugach State Park. Recent snow and strong easterly wind have formed fresh wind slabs over a weak, faceted snowpack. Human-triggered avalanches are likely in wind-loaded terrain, and avalanches may step down into deeper persistent weak layers, producing large and dangerous slides. See this weekend's CSP outlook or more info.

Join us Friday, Feb. 13, for the annual Snowball fundraiser! This event is a collaboration with the Alaska Avalanche School and is always a fun way to support two nonprofit organizations that provide avalanche information and education in our area. Silent auction, beverages, hors d'oeuvres, and music by Hope Social Club! Tickets and event info at alaskaavalanche.org

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Recent avalanches: Thursday's storm resulted in a widespread natural avalanche cycle, with activity observed near Girdwood and Turnagain Pass. We saw widespread D2 avalanches (large enough to bury a person) on Seattle Ridge, Tincan, and Magnum. This was likely only a small part of the extent of the cycle, but we have limited observations following the storm.

    We have another day of quiet weather on tap before things begin to ramp up tomorrow. Our main concern is triggering a large avalanche on a weak layer of faceted snow buried 2 to 5' deep near Girdwood and Turnagain Pass. This layer is slowly improving, but it is still giving a few key signs that we are paying attention to. Yesterday we got unstable test results on the layer on Sunburst in the alpine, while another group reported experiencing a large collapse at just above 2000'. Some of the avalanches that occurred during last week's storm failed on this layer, and we expect someone will still be able to trigger an avalanche on it today.

    Deep slab problems are difficult to assess, and the stakes are high. You may not see any warning signs despite dangerous conditions, and it takes a lot of time digging to effectively test the layer. While the likelihood of triggering an avalanche is slowly decreasing, the potential size of avalanches has increased with every storm. For now, the best way to manage this problem is to avoid traveling on or below steep slopes— especially bigger terrain or anything with terrain traps like cliffs, gullies, or trees in runout zones.

    Wind Slabs: Easterly winds are expected to increase slightly during the day, which may build a fresh round of reactive wind slabs at upper elevations. These will likely be small today, but this is one more thing to pay attention to as you travel.

     

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