Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

The avalanche hazard is CONSIDERABLE.  New snow and wind will make it likely for a machine or person to trigger an avalanche 1-2 feet deep.  Avalanches have the potential to step down to deeper layers in the snowpack, creating larger, more destructive avalanches.  Use extra caution if the sun breaks through the clouds today and avoid grouping up at the base of avalanche terrain.  Natural avalanches are possible.

Avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Storm slabs have been steadily building over the last 24 hours above 3000'. Below 3000', near-freezing temperatures have prevented meaningful accumulation. On 4/17, 6 inches of new snow was found to be poorly bonded in Gully 1, and sensitive wind-loaded snow up to 20 inches deep was reported near Thompson Pass Summit. Another 3–6 inches of snow likely accumulated overnight, adding to the depth of storm slabs and increasing the load on weak layers buried deeper in the snowpack (see Problem 3). Snowfall is expected to taper off by early afternoon, and some weather models suggest the sun may break through later today before the next storm arrives Sunday.

    Poorly bonded storm snow combined with afternoon sun will make human-triggered avalanches likely and natural avalanches possible. If the sun breaks through the clouds, expect the sensitivity of the new snow to increase rapidly and create dangerous avalanche conditions. Conservative terrain choices are recommended today. Avoid avalanche terrain being heated by the sun, and do not group up beneath avalanche-prone slopes.

    New snow amounts will remain variable with elevation and become more meaningful above 3000'. Below 3000', new snow is very wet and mixed with rain at lower elevations, creating wet loose avalanche concerns (see Problem 2).

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–3

    Wet loose activity today will depend largely on whether the sun is able to break through the clouds. If skies clear, expect wet loose avalanches to become active quickly on solar aspects, especially along the coast where storm totals are higher. New snow is poorly bonded to old melt-freeze crusts and will be easy to entrain once it becomes wet. Avoid traveling on or below slopes steeper than 30° where more than 6 inches of wet snow is present. Given our poor snowpack structure, wet loose avalanches running through steep, rocky south-facing terrain may gouge deeper into the snowpack and step down into older weak snow.

    If clouds persist, wet loose activity will likely remain limited and mostly confined to below 3000'.

    (4/14/2026)

    Wet loose activity entrains the full depth of our weak and thin snowpack.  Toe of the Hoodoo.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Persistent Slab: Multiple weak layers remain a concern within the snowpack. These layers are being progressively loaded by new snow above 3000' and may become reactive as snowfall continues to accumulate. Our area has remained fairly dry over the last two months, allowing weak snow to adjust to the slab above. Even so, any increase in load or rapid warming has led to increased sensitivity. This was last observed on 4/9, when 4–8 inches of new snow combined with sunny skies produced multiple human-triggered avalanches, both direct and remote, as well as hundreds of large natural wet loose avalanches.

    Today may produce a similar rise in sensitivity if the sun breaks through the clouds, and storm totals are expected to be higher this time around. It is difficult to predict exactly how much new snow or warming will be required to reactivate weak layers, but these layers are now being stressed. The best way to reduce risk is to choose simple terrain today. If you choose to travel in avalanche terrain, only expose one person to a slope at a time, keep eyes on your partners, and identify safe spots before committing to terrain. Keep in mind that if avalanches fail on older weak layers, slabs may propagate wider and run farther than expected.

    Deep Persistent Slab: Buried weak snow near the ground has remained unreactive for quite a while. Triggering a layer this deep is currently unlikely, but as spring thaw progresses this layer may become stressed enough to produce large avalanches. Keep this on your radar as conditions continue to change later in the season.

    (4/9/2026)

    D2 avalanche triggered remotely while skinning.  Failed on old persistent weak layer after party had already skinned through the area.  

    Wortmans, The Island, ~2800', North

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  

Minor wet loose activity on solar aspects

Forecast Discussion: 

Today is an elevated hazard day as new snow adds stress to a weak and variable snowpack. Poor bonding has been observed at the new/old snow interface, especially where new snow overlies a melt-freeze crust. Wind has also been transporting new snow into deeper and more sensitive pockets along ridgelines and through wind-channeled terrain.

The last time a similar load was applied to the snowpack, avalanche activity increased quickly, including direct and remote triggers on older persistent weak layers. A similar rise in sensitivity is possible today. The longer range forecast calls for continued snowfall, with more meaningful accumulations possible into next week. As snowfall adds up, the chances of buried persistent weak layers becoming reactive will continue to increase, especially during times of direct sun.

Conservative terrain choices remain the best way to manage uncertainty in a snowpack that may become more reactive with each new round of loading.

Please consider leaving an observation with storm totals and/or any signs of instability or avalanche activity that you encounter to help us paint a clearer picture of this complex and unusual snowpack. 

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.  

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