Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE above 10,500'. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist with increased and shifting winds that have further loaded sensitive slabs, up to 2' deep. Human-triggered avalanches, cracking, and collapsing have been reported by multiple backcountry parties over the past 24 hours. Stick to low-angle terrain and carefully evaluate surface conditions at mid and upper elevations, especially below loaded ridgelines, convexities, and steep loaded gulleys. Slopes with wind-loaded pillows, wind textures, and stiff or hollow-feeling snow should be considered suspect and avoided. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The previous stiff, supportable and stubborn upper snowpack that we've been encountering the past few weeks on northerly and southerly aspects in upper elevations has created the bed surface for recent wind and snow accumulation, which is trending to a harder, more cohesive, and potentially touchy wind slab in isolated terrain. 

    Another day of unsettled weather, snow accumulation and shifting winds at upper elevations has created a reactive snowpack for backcountry users on both north and south aspects. Daytime winds yesterday were varied, ranging from moderate north-northwest at upper elevations to east-northeast at and below ridgelines. Overnight, east-southeast winds reached consistent gusts up to 41 mph, capable of significant transport onto northerly and westerly slopes. Snow transport was observed by users onto northwest and southern aspects, particularly classic starting zones such as entrances to gulleys, and convexities off of ridgelines. 

    Multiple backcountry users have reported both intentional and unintentional human-triggered avalanches on northerly and southerly aspects, up to 1'-1.5' deep and consisting of a harder, more cohesive slab that could injure, bury or kill a backcountry user. These slabs were preceded by widespread cracking, up to 10' in length. To identify areas with wind slabs, keep an eye out for stiff or hollow feeling snow in wind exposed areas and terrain. Utilize small test slopes, such as a few feet above the skin track, to check for shooting cracks and determine how reactive wind slabs are to the weight of a skier or rider. Ensure you avoid the temptation to keep pushing into higher, steeper terrain, as wind slabs may be lurking beneath soft, low-density surface snow. 

    (3/17/2024)

    A small (D1) wind slab avalanche on a small test slope. 

    Photo: Tanner Porter

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Our concern is that midpack facets may reach a critical threshold of the additional weight of recent accumulation and transported snow. It is possible for Problem 1 to "step-down" and trigger these persistent weak layers in isolated terrain. Throughout the season, our persistent weak layers have been found ranging from radiation-formed facets above melt-freeze crusts, 1' beneath the surface, and as deep as 3' pre-storm.

    Facet layers are notable for forming above solar crusts and have been observed in specific areas on both northerly and southerly aspects. These solar crusts are facet factories when insulated deeper in the snowpack and typically time will either help bond snow to the crusts or create a larger, more developed weak layer. These problems are tricky to predict and even harder to assess. The best way to manage this type of avalanche problem is to take a more conservative approach to selecting terrain by sticking to lower angle slopes and avoiding the runout zones of overhead avalanche paths. 

    (3/14/2024) Our current PWL to track which is 30-50cm beneath the surface. On northern aspects, midpack facets are set up above a solar crust. On southern aspects, facets are layered between multiple melt-freeze crusts.  Photo: Eric R./ JP

Avalanche Discussion

Avoidance is the name of the game at this stage. New snow and wind results in a wind slab problem. Avalanche conditions will remain dangerous as winds and snow rates continue throughout the day.

Due to limited visibility and evolving weather patterns, observing natural avalanches in the full extent of our forecasting area has not been possible, therefore uncertainty still remains high for wind slab potential. 

The hazard has increased due to reactivity in the upper snowpack and stiffening of wind loaded surfaces.  Fresh wind slabs don’t necessarily need to be very stiff to carry or bury a human, as any snow that has drifted into a deeper slab will be suspect and harder to assess. Be skeptical of slopes with relatively stiffer snow sitting on top of a softer layer. Warning signs like shooting cracks and collapsing, which have been evident within the last 24 hours, are clear indicators of unstable snow. Cracking is evidence to support your suspicions of instability, typically in the upper surface of the snowpack.

The most common, though not the only, areas to find reactive wind slabs today will be in moderate to steep terrain just below ridgelines, convex rolls, and gullies. Travel tests can be a very effective way to assess how sensitive these surface problems are. This includes things like quick hand pits to see how easily the new snow is shearing off the surface. Your best bet for staying out of trouble and finding the best surface conditions to ski or ride,  is to look for slopes that are protected from the wind today. Snowpack assessments, safe travel techniques on negotiable terrain and maintaining a high index of suspicion is best practice going forward, which cannot be emphasized enough. Yesterday, shooting cracks were widespread on both lightly and heavily wind loaded surfaces, which prompted backcountry users and forecasters to conduct test slopes, on manageable terrain, to assess the reactivity of the snowpack. Collapsing, found on northeast to northwest aspects, as well as south-southwest aspects, was the theme of the day as the new-old interfaces are adjusting to the new weight of freshly transported snow. 

Many areas of our forecasting zone were previously stripped or shallow with rock, talus, and vegetation exposed on the surface. With the recent accumulation of soft snow, areas that have been sheltered from the wind or nearby may be harboring hazards that may deceive the unaware traveler. Maintain caution and feel beneath the surface often and at multiple aspects, to avoid an injury from being caught off guard or thrown off balance, in simple to challenging terrain.  

Create a plan with decision points, utilize safe traveling techniques, and avoid having a runout zone above you as the skin track and slopes become more crowded over the next few days.

Storm totals so far are 26" reported from Arizona Snowbowl and 18" at the Snowslide Canyon SNOTEL.  Just over 2.5" of SWE has been recorded at the Snowslide Canyon  SNOTEL site since Thursday. 

Come join Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center on Saturday, April 6th, at the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser!  All proceeds from this event go to our scholarship fund, which, to date, has resulted in over 29K of scholarship benefits!  For more information on how to get involved, visit kachinapeaks.org.  Many thanks to everyone who made our avalanche courses a success this season and a big thank you to all our participants!

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