Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Expect to find new wind slabs above/near treeline. Retreat from slopes where slabs of wind-packed snow crack and collapse over soft snow. Avoid large wind drifts and pillows, especially near rollovers (convexities). Hard wind slabs often feel hollow underfoot. There is a small chance that a human-triggered wind slab avalanche could step down, triggering a larger persistent slab avalanche. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Winds have been south, southwest, west, and northwest near treeline since yesterday. Windslabs could be on just about any aspect. Below convexities, on leeward slopes, and at entrances and (cross-loaded) sides of gulleys/chutes, are key locations for wind slab development and hotspots for triggering an avalanche. Pole probe for stiffer snow over softer snow to identify areas with wind slabs. Avoid large loaded pillows of wind-deposited snow. Utilize small and inconsequential test slopes to determine how reactive wind slabs are to the weight of a skier or rider.

    There is a small chance that a human-triggered wind slab avalanche could step down,  triggering a larger avalanche on a persistent weak layer.  See persistent slab problem for more info.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    Currently, easterly aspects above/near treeline are the most suspect for a persistent slab problem. Today, a person's weight will unlikely trigger any persistent slab avalanches. However, a human-triggered wind slab avalanche may step down and trigger a larger persistent slab.

    Snowpit tests and recent avalanches have focused the problem to easterly, northwest, and southwest aspects above and near treeline. The problem may exist in other isolated locations, but no recent observations have confirmed this. Some recent (but minimal) observations suggest the problem is nonexistent on northwesterly, northerly, and northeasterly slopes of Hardcore Ridge and Humphreys Cirque. Over the last two days a thick and stout melt/freeze crust developed on sunny and southerly slopes. This m/f crust is now refrozen,  and it is unlikely that a person's weight will penetrate this layer, collapsing any weak layers below. 

    The primary layers of concern are facets above and below the late February melt/freeze crust, topped by a hard slab of snow from the St. Patrick's Day Storm Cycle. The February melt/freeze crust will be 60-100cm below the surface. It will be difficult to distinguish the late February crust on shady/northerly slopes, but it can be done by delicately using your probe. 

    Last Wednesday,  a D2 persistent slab avalanche (easterly aspect) was triggered on the skin track out of Humphrey's Cirque (HS-ASr-R1D2-I).  This avalanche was remotely triggered by a collapse that ran towards a rock outcrop and could have gone larger.  Fortunately, no one was caught in this event.  It failed in facets just above the late February melt/freeze crust. See the avalanche details and debrief here. 

    (3/20/2024)

    Last Wednesday's D2 persistent slab avalanche was remotely and unintentionally triggered on the east-facing skin track exiting Humphrey's Cirque. The connected slab of this avalanche PROPAGATED and cracked ~100 feet beyond the crown (and above the skin track) but did not slide. Fortunately, no one was caught in this event. 

Avalanche Discussion

Want to keep it safe today and avoid triggering an avalanche in the new snow? Stick to slopes that are  <30° steep and not connected to steeper slopes above. 

Crampons and ice axe will be helpful where new snow has been scoured to the hard and stout melt/freeze crust of approximately South, West and East slopes. 

Yesterday, instability tests near the easterly 3/20 crown line of the Humphreys Cirque/Rustler Peak avalanche indicated that the problem has become more stubborn to propagate, but still there. On other NW, NE, and N slopes in the Inner Basin, instability tests indicated that propagation was unlikely on layers of concern near the late February m/f crust. 

Today, the wind slabs discussed above will be a backcountry traveler's largest threat. It would be a good idea to check the bonding of the new snow to the hard melt/freeze crusts that developed on most slopes over the last few days. Yesterday's tour revealed a widespread m/f crust surface on most aspects and elevations. Only steep northerly slopes above 11000 were spared from the warm, calm, and sunny days this week. 

Recent snowpits can be found at https://snowpilot.org/snowpits/query?field_loaction_tid=4. 

Come join Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center on Saturday, April 6th, at the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser!  All proceeds from this event go to our scholarship fund, which, to date, has resulted in over 29K of scholarship benefits!  For more information on how to get involved, visit kachinapeaks.org.  Many thanks to everyone who made our avalanche courses a success this season, and a big thank you to all our participants! 

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