A complex snowpack should lead you to choose simple terrain. We just dropped to MODERATE danger since the likelihood has decreased, but you could still trigger a dangerous slab avalanche breaking 2-3 feet down in old snow. The consequence of such a slide remains high. Choose low-consequence or low-angle terrain for a sustainable way to enjoy the snow.
Today's forecast is sponsored by: La Grande Sno-Drifters snowmobile club.
New snow from Weds and Thurs blew into wind drifts, especially near ridgelines. These are now 24-48 hours old, so trending down in reactivity. Watch for cracks or rippled texture, listen for styrofoam-y snow, and feel for suddenly stiffer snow that supports your machine or boards. If you note any of these, seek low angle terrain.
(3/4/2026) Snow plumes and wind loading on March 3rd
The Valentine's Buried Surface Hoar layer, along with weak faceted snow from the January Drought (buried on Feb 8), has been found in the upper 3 feet of the snowpack. If you trigger a slab avalanche on either or both of these fragile weak layers, you will likely produce a large to very large avalanche.
Persistent Slab avalanches can release in surprising ways:
Yes, keep your ears peeled for collapses or whumphs, but don't let their absence allow you into consequential slopes over 30 degrees. Avoidance is our top (and our only) tool when it comes to dealing with a persistent slab.
(2/26/2026)
Full Propagation on Valentines buried surface hoar in S Wallowas
Photo: Victor McNeil
Spooky MODERATE refers to deceptively dangerous low-probability/high-consequence conditions. Natural avalanches are unlikely on our persistent weak layers, and even a rider won't trigger them on some of the slopes with buried surface hoar. Historically, avalanche involvements often happen on the day ratings are dropped.
Use the forecast as a starting point, but continue assessing conditions as you travel. Especially in Northeastern Oregon, we don't have the high recreational user numbers that other zones do, such as touring meccas like the Wasatch or motorized playgrounds like Togwotee Pass. These have their own avalanche hazards from crowding, but they get more observations in smaller areas and so users have higher confidence in understanding the snowpack structure. Rescue resources, such as helicopters and people, are also available.
Here, you might go into a drainage that few or no people have been in all season. If you want to learn more, by all means, dig in to check for our persistent slab problem. If the WAC doesn't have it listed somewhere, try to prove us wrong (and tell us later). Or, you can also keep your shovel in your pack and avoid avalanche terrain or slopes over 30 degrees.
Observations: If you are out in the mountains, please send us an observation of what you saw. All observations are noteworthy and greatly help the forecasters. If you don't want everyone to see where you went, you can set it to private so only the forecasters will see it.
Beacon Parks: Thank you to everyone who helped establish the beacon training park at Anthony Lakes (across from the ski lift on Mud Lake) and near the warming shelter at Salt Creek Summit snopark outside of Joseph, OR. These are free tools that we should all take advantage of.
