Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard remains Moderate at all elevations and in all forecast areas. Triggering a lingering wind slab up to 1 ft in depth will remain possible today. Additionally, there is still a possibility of triggering a deeper hard slab avalanche in specific wind loaded terrain 2-4 ft deep. 

Public avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The 1/26 weak layer remains a concern on specific wind loaded terrain features and in areas more protected from North East winds. The likelihood of triggering this layer is low but the consequences would be dire should a person or machine trigger this layer that is now buried 2-4 ft deep under dense wind packed snow. This layer is not likely to show signs of instability and will be difficult for even high end users to identify. The best way to mitigate this problem is to stay off large connected slopes.

    (2/21/2026)

    HS-N-R2-D3-O

    Natural persistent slab avalanche on Averys/SW that failed at a PWL on 2/20 and ran full path ~3800'.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Fresh windslabs that formed over the past few days will still be lingering out there today, especially where they overlie weak (faceted) snow. Cold temperatures that have accompanied the strong northeast winds have caused our snowpack to lose strength and will make these hard wind slabs linger longer than normal. Take note of which slopes looked wind loaded vs scoured. To mitigate the hazard, stay off of loaded terrain features like deep gullies and use safe travel protocols like spacing out and riding one at a time.

    Wind Tranporting loose snow on 3/3/26 on 40.5 mile

    Photo: Paul Ramseth

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    Weak snow near the ground is increasingly common as you move North through our forecast zones, with the Continental zone being the most concerning. Although it still remains unlikely to trigger this layer, areas that have been scoured from strong northeast winds now have a shallower snowpack making this layer closer to the surface and potentially easier for a rider to trigger.

    This is a low-likelihood, high-consequence problem—especially in steep, rocky terrain and areas where the snowpack is thin or scoured. Triggering this layer directly is unlikely at this time, but avalanches that start in the upper snowpack could step down to the basal weak layer.  There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the poor structure at the base of the snowpack.  What we can be sure about is that this layer is less of a concern in the Maritime zone and more of a concern as you move towards the Continental zone where the snowpack is thinner and the weak layer is more developed. 

    Watch for thin spots near rock outcrops, scoured features, and along ridge tops. Wind loading adds stress to these shallow areas, and we don’t know where the tipping point is.

    (2/25/2026)

    Deep slab natural avalanche on The Wall / north/~5800'.  Failed sometime in the last couple of weeks.

    Photo: Jed Workman

Avalanche Discussion

Avalanche activity in the last 72 hours:  None reported or observed

Forecast Discussion

Surface conditions are far from ideal right now, ranging from slopes that have been scoured down to bare rock and old rain crusts, to knife hard wind slabs and sastrugi. It is easy to be conservative when surface conditions are this bad, but with some snow in the forecast for this evening into friday, remember that the snowpack is just as bad as the surface conditions. The last strong NE wind event left us with a snowpack more reminiscent of early December rather than early March. Cold temperatures continue to facet the thin snowpack making things weaker by the day. This is not a normal year on Thompson Pass and this snowpack should not be trusted. Use caution and be conservative when traveling in the mountains right now.

For more information regarding our snowpack, see our Season summary, Observations, and avalanche activity sections.  

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