Provo
Avalanche danger
- Alpine
- Treeline
- Below treeline
Highlights
This morning, avalanche danger is LOW, and the snowpack is generally stable. Mountain travel carries inherent risks, and Normal Caution is advised.
Throughout the day, avalanche danger will rise to MODERATE on solars as temperatures climb and skies remain clear. Small wet loose avalanches on sunny, wind-sheltered slopes may become possible. Pay attention to changing conditions; if a slope becomes unsupportable, it’s time to switch aspects.
The high winds should keep most of the wet snow at bay today, but expect avalanche danger to increase over the next few days with this significant warm-up.
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Recent Activity
We received no reports of avalanches over the last few days.
You can find more observations from the Provo area mountains HERE.
Snow and Weather
This morning, skies are clear, and temperatures are in the low 30s to low 40s °F. A few mountain weather stations dropped below freezing overnight, while many trailhead and base area stations may not have. Winds are from the west to northwest and are strong, with 5 AM gusts near 40 mph along exposed mid and upper elevation ridges and peaks. As is often the case, the highest peak winds are much stronger, with 5 AM averages above 80 mph on a nearby 11,000' peak.
Today, skies will remain clear and mostly sunny, with the potential for some high-level clouds. High temperatures are expected to increase by around 10 degrees compared to yesterday, rising into the upper 40s and low 50s °F. Winds will diminish slightly throughout the day but remain strong, gusting into the 20s, with stronger gusts up to 60 mph at the uppermost elevations.
This week, we begin to enter a significant warming trend, with mountain temperatures soaring into the 50s and 60s °F by the end of the week. Temperatures will be more in line with what is typically seen from late May into early June.
Additional Info
What does it mean to drop the PWL?
Graphic courtesy of Joe Stock's 2024 piece in The Avalanche Review.
You'll notice that we dropped the persistent weak layer (PWL)—that's responsible for 4 deaths since mid-February—as a problem yesterday. What we want you to know is that there is a fair bit of uncertainty around dropping a PWL from the forecast. We don't drop a PWL because it's impossible to trigger. In fact, it is literally impossible to be 100% certain that there is not a single lingering weakness. As seen in the graphic, a PWL comes with an inherently higher amount of uncertainty, as do glide avalanches—like the one that ran in Broads. Know as you travel today that uncertainty lingers in the mountains—and we deal with uncertainty by adding margins.
Uncertainty is a tough thing to communicate in avalanche forecasting; that's why multiple PhDs are studying it. An important finding so far is that explicitly stating our uncertainty in our forecasts increases trust in the avalanche center.
So keep this in mind: there’s still uncertainty around the PWL. As temperatures rise later this week, it may reappear in the forecast. The snowpack remains very structured, and with the warming, it could drive some large, destructive wet slab avalanches.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.