Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

No overnight refreeze followed by another warm, sunny day is likely to result in quickly deteriorating surface conditions and multiple wet snow hazards. Surfaces will start soft, and only get weaker and punchier throughout the day, so it’s time to pack it up once you encounter wet and unsupportive conditions. Slopes receiving direct sunshine should destabilize first, but the lack of a refreeze will help wet snow problems migrate to our typically colder, northerly-facing slopes where a drier overall snowpack likely undergoes a more dynamic swing of the wetting pendulum.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2

    Slabs that formed from storms between the end of March to April 3 will continue to consolidate under increasingly warm air temperatures and direct solar input. The lack of a solid overnight freeze allows meltwater to work down through the shallow slab, lubricating and weakening the bond between the slab and the slick crust that it is resting on. This process could destabilize the slab and cause avalanches to fail naturally or become sensitive to the weight of a person or machine. A small loose wet avalanche can be the precursor of a larger and more dangerous slab avalanche - which would have cascading, high consequences. Multiple hard and slick crust exist in the upper snowpack, which could amplify the speed of a moving slab and help the avalanche quickly grow in size. The heavy dense slab and debris from Wet Slab avalanches can be very destructive and nearly impossible to escape once caught and carried. 

    The best way to avoid this scenario is to pay attention to how wet the snow surface becomes throughout the day and avoid being on or below slopes over 30 degrees during peak daytime warming. Poor overnight refreezing conditions and very warm daytime temperatures forecasted are likely to rapidly increase the rate that conditions will deteriorate on Monday.

    In the previous days, field teams have observed propagating results within the slab of recent snow. Meltwater working through the slab today could weaken these interfaces even more or lubricate the bond between the slab and crust layers.

    Photo: Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    This time of year, the sun tracks higher in the sky and delivers more direct radiation to all aspects, allowing snow surface conditions to warm and soften more rapidly. A hard and slick crust underlies the most recent storm which is making it easier for Wet Loose avalanches to start migrating downhill and gain momentum once triggered, and some may fail naturally. The lower elevation snowpack has been subjected to warmer temperatures for a longer period than middle and upper elevations this spring, making it progressively more stubborn to failure as time goes on. Upper elevation slopes that have received more dry snow recently and stayed relatively cooler this weekend are where wet snow hazards could be more widespread on Monday.

    Diligently monitor changes on the surface, plan your route carefully, and be prepared to adjust plans if you observe signs that conditions are deteriorating such as a rapid transition from cold and supportable snow to moist and punchy surfaces, pinwheels occurring naturally or triggered beneath your feet or machine.

    The danger will rise during the day as sun exposure and the ambient air temperature increase. Observing snow shed around cliff bands and rocks is one of your first clues that wet hazards are developing. Photo from the East Cabinets. 

    March 28, 2026.

    Photo: Micah Krmpotich

Avalanche Discussion

Overnight temperatures across all forecast zones were mild and freezing levels ranged 5,500 feet across the north to well above 6,000 feet in the south. Thankfully, skies were mostly clear overnight which likely helped surfaces cool through strong radiation loss. Places where air temperatures were just above freezing numerically could have a refrozen egg-shell on the surface this morning. This will not prevent the inevitable, but may slow the onset of surface softening/ wetting. Evaluate how thick the surface refreeze is as a guide to help determine which steeper terrain or elevation bands become off-limits first.

As warm days stack on each other, the bulls-eye areas to encounter  wet snow hazards are still focused on sunny slopes. However, the wetting influence may migrate toward the northern half of the compass if high clouds blanket the skies overnight Sunday as forecast. This could generate enough of a greenhouse effect to start to unravel northerly-facing slopes. 

This would initially be in the form of increased rollerballing that entrains additional volume while trundling downhill and be most concerning if you're lingering in a blinded depression or terrain trap where you can’t see above you. There would also be the growing potential that the inverted storm slab that formed recently failed as a hybrid avalanche problem - a wet, softening matured storm slab. Regardless of the underlying mechanics, wet or moist slab avalanches in the spring can generate a pile of concrete-like debris that can be quite challenging to escape from.

If this all sounds a little complicated, it’s because it is. Although spring has sprung, the snowpack is a bit more complex than what we typically think of when lining out late-season objectives. Conditions still warrant making timely decisions about where to recreate and not treating all slopes as “open season”. Keep your avalanche brain engaged, read the environment around you, and diligently look for small changes to try to stay ahead of the wet snow curve.

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