Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

We wrapped up our holiday period on a warm and wet note, resulting in plenty of avalanche activity. Give the snowpack time to adjust and heal by avoiding steep unsupported slopes or convexities. Wet avalanches will be more prominent, but a lingering slab would likely have higher consequences. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    You may be able to find dry snow below the moist surface and possibly at upper elevations. So it is worth considering the possibility of slab avalanches for another day as the snowpack adjusts to the rapid change it just underwent. The snow surface doesn't have to be dry to produce a slab avalanche, but our hunch is that they'll be more likely as you ascend to elevations that got less damp. Be extra leery on steep, unsupported slopes or convex features where triggering a slab is more likely. They could be stubborn, but if they get moving they will likely grow large and dangerous as they descend.

    (1/5/2025)

    A skier triggered slab avalanche on a convexity on Tye Peak. Similar avalanches could occur on Monday.

     Photo: Sasha Williams

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The snow surface is generally wet and weak. Monday is expected to be mostly sunny and freezing levels should be on the rise. Thus, wet avalanches will be possible anywhere you are sinking into wet and sticky snow deeper than your ankle. You could see a variety of issues - wet loose, tree bombs, large chunks of snow falling off rocky ledges, or even cornice collapses. Any of these could then entrain snow and grow large as they descend. They could even trigger lingering slabs. Make travel plans that avoid overhead hazards or terrain traps such as gullies and creeks where even a small wet avalanche could become more consequential. 

    (1/5/2025)

    Wet avalanche debris coming out of a steep rocky area near Lake Valhalla.

    There's still plenty of snow to shed from those rocks and trees in the warm weather ahead.

Avalanche Discussion

Saturday night's storm finished warm, resulting in widespread avalanche activity overnight and during the day on Sunday. Steven's Pass Pro Patrol reported sensitive 8-10 inch slabs during their morning mitigation efforts before a changeover to wet problems. Backcountry travelers at Lake Valhalla, Tye Peak, and Lanham Lake all had reports of heavy wet snow, wet avalanches, and a few skier-triggered slabs. This confirms that the surface got wet up to roughly 5500', but there is uncertainty above that, particularly in the eastern reaches of the zone. With a poor overnight refreeze expected and a relatively warm and sunny day forecast on Monday, don't expect the narrative to change much. The outlier could be at lower elevations where cool east flow could start to help stabilize the snow from the top down as it freezes. 

Prior to Saturday night's storm, there was concern for potentially buried weak layers being activated. We don't have enough information yet to either confirm or deny activity on these suspected layers, but we can say that below the moist surface, a cold and layered snowpack still exists. Multiple feet of snow has fallen over the last two weeks and this storm was a big change to top it off. We don't anticipate the same level of avalanche activity on Monday, but that doesn't mean everything is good to go, particularly at upper elevations where uncertainty is high. Our hunch is that we're still in store for a few weird avalanches as this warm week commences. Give the snowpack the time it needs to heal and adjust.

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