Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Avalanche conditions remain dangerous despite being three days out from a major loading event. Fresh wind slabs are forming this morning in the upper elevations where strong easterly winds and a trace of new snow arrived overnight. These wind slabs are are likely on the small side at 6" deep or so, but have the potential to trigger a much larger avalanche up to 4' deep, which is the bigger concern. Safer terrain and softer snow can be found in places that are protected from the wind. 

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Turnagain Pass Motorised Use:  The Forest Service has opened Turnagain Pass to motorized use. This is the only area on the Chugach National Forest that received enough snow to open, all other areas remain closed. Low snow cover hazards exist in the flats such as open creeks and countless alders. We have limited information for much of this zone and ask that extra caution is used if riding on the steeper slopes.

Turnagain Pass Master Plan:  A public Meeting for the 'Turnagain Pass Master Plan' is happening today, noon to 2pm - Virtual. Link HERE. This is a comprehensive plan that outlines the potential development of parking areas, trails and pathways, and programs expected in the 20 years to come.

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2.5–3.5

    Incredibly, Summit Lake received over 4' of snow within one week (between the storms on January 6 and 12), which will be good for this snowpack moving forward. Unfortunately, this created a problem that is deep and difficult to assess. The weak snow that is the culprit of this problem is now 4' or more below the surface and, if triggered, would create a very large and destructive avalanche that would be difficult to survive. The way to completely avoid this is to stay away from steep slopes above 2,500'.

    Because this problem is so difficult to assess, we don't know exactly how likley it is that a human could trigger an avalanche of this type. We do know that deep slabs are usually triggered from a thin spot in the snowpack near rocky areas. This problem doesn't tend to give any feedback and it could be the second, third, eighth or ninth skier on the slope that triggers one of these avalanches. If you are getting into steep terrain, safe travel protocols are essential. Travel one at a time and watch your partners. Places that are normally safe may not be when avalanches this large are possible, so factor that in when choosing safe spots.

     

    (1/14/2025)

    Very large avalanche on Colorado Mountain that likely occurred during the storm on January 12.

    Photo submitted anonymously

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Snow is just beginning to fall in Summit Lake and just a few inches are expected, so the wind slabs that are forming in the upper elevations should be 6" deep or less. The bigger concern with a wind slab today, is that it is located in the same place, and could potentially trigger a very large avalanche described in the much scarier problem 1. Because these problems are located in the same place, the same travel advice is recommended as described above.

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