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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 21st, 2015–Dec 22nd, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary.

Touchy storm slab conditions. Back off into simple terrain if you encounter signs of instability, like cracking or whumpfing.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

An unsettled flow continues to affect the southern part of the province, bringing snow and cold temperatures. Models disagree on snowfall amounts, but most snow is likely to fall in the far south. Tuesday:  5-15 cm; Wednesday: 5-15 cm; Thursday: 5-20 cm. Winds are generally light, but may increase with the passage of frontal systems.  The freezing level stays near surface. For more details check out https://avalanche.ca/weather. 

Avalanche Summary

Skiers triggered numerous loose dry and soft slab avalanches on Sunday in the size 1-2 range. There were also numerous natural loose dry and storm slab avalanches out of steep terrain.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 50 cm of low density snow now covers various surfaces, including the reactive mid-December surface hoar. This surface hoar can be found on all aspects in protected areas, but does not seem to be widespread across the region. In many areas, the new snow sits on top of a thin rain crust. No matter what the new snow overlies, it is bonding poorly in most steep terrain. Moderate SW winds recently formed fresh wind slabs on lee features at treeline and in the alpine. At treeline elevation the early December crust, down around 50-100 cm, is thick and supportive, and may be capping deeper weaknesses. It may also be providing a good sliding surface for the odd larger avalanche.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.