Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A couple inches of overnight snow, more sunlight, and warmer temperatures than we've had in over a week are expected on Easter Sunday. We're finding breakable crusts on all aspects aside from north-facing slopes, but even the crusts could moisten and we could get wet snow avalanches. Uncertainty exists as to how many wet avalanches will run, but evaluate conditions as you travel, and when you start sinking into moist snow or see avalanches coming down, shift to lower angle terrain or shadier aspects. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    A breakable crust is present on the southern half of the compass. The crust and the underlying snow could soften enough so that we'll get wet loose avalanches on Sunday. The day progressively warms, so the danger will increase as time continues. If avalanches happen, they could wrap further around the compass, but hopefully they will still spare north-facing terrain. We are unsure how reactive the snow will get as the day warms- we could see many wet loose avalanches, or, the snow which previously had a crust could stay stubborn and react minimally. 

    As you travel, pay attention to the crust, making note of how much it is softening. When the snow is moist enough that the crust has entirely broken down and the snow is damp and sticky, start thinking about your travel options. If you're sinking ankle-deep into wet snow, retreat to lower angle terrain. If you see any wet avalanches beginning to come down on their own, stay off steep slopes and the terrain beneath them. 

    (4/16/22) Small rollerballs ran in the last few days in the Lake 22 area. Expect to see these running on Sunday, and increasing to actual wet loose avalanches as the day progresses. Photo: Irene Henninger

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Moderate wind and a couple inches of overnight snow could continue redistributing snow into wind slabs at upper elevations on Sunday. This is especially the case further south and in eastern portions of the zone, where winds are stronger.  If you're traveling on the periphery of the West Central Zone, don't hesitate to take a look at the adjacent zone forecast as well, as that information could be relevant to where you're traveling. 

    Small drifts along ridgelines and around features may exist. Pay attention to the snow surface and whether there is any wind loading, noting rippled or textured surfaces, and feeling for firmer snow.  Shooting cracks are good indicators that a slope could avalanche, so if this occurs avoid nearby wind-loaded steep slopes. We don't expect many reactive wind slabs to still exist, but due to limited information in the area, make sure to pay attention and keep making observations as you travel. Even if you only trigger a small avalanche, if you're in high consequence terrain the outcome could be bad if you're caught in the avalanche.

    If you encounter cracking, stay off nearby steep slopes. 

    Photo: Daniel MacDonald

Avalanche Discussion

Previously, north-facing terrain was hanging onto dry, low-density powder. It's unclear whether that will remain the case throughout Sunday. If warming is more than expected, the north-facing terrain could easily run as wet loose avalanches, as it was previously low-density snow. We don't expect this to be the case. However, keep tabs on the snow if you do travel on north-facing and if it starts getting moist, stay off steep areas. If the north-facing snow stays dry, remain alert to triggering loose dry avalanches, which would probably not cause much of a problem, unless you are in high consequence terrain. 

I hiked to Lake 22 on Saturday and was surprised to see a progression from only patchy snow at 2000ft to 6 feet of snow at the lake. There were small amounts of surface hoar on the snow surface near the lake, something we'll want to keep tabs on as it could get buried Sunday night. I saw several very small old loose dry avalanches that ran off the north-facing cliffs. We also got a great observation from Eldorado Peak on Friday, which you can read HERE. They reported a supportable frozen crust on south aspects, and highly variable weather softened then refroze the crust. Wind slabs looked to have been present, but were avoided during their travels. 

As springtime progresses, despite the recent and ongoing cooler temperatures and snow, the annual migration of climbers, mountaineers and ski tourers into the depths of the West Central Zone is commencing. Occasional Facebook posts are found on the trip to some obscure peak in the depths of the West Central Zone as adventurers are starting to get out there. Please consider sharing your information with NWAC as well as the Facebook community, so that we can write better forecasts for other backcountry users who are also making their way out. You can submit observations HERE. Have a great Easter weekend!

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