Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Avalanche danger is Low in the morning while the surface crust is still frozen and supportable, but will increase with daytime warming. Start early, and be ready to move away from steep slopes once snow becomes wet and punchy, or unsupportable. Expect an increase in hazard from loose wet avalanches, cornice fall, and snow shedding from steep rocks in the afternoon.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches should be expected this weekend. Avalanche danger is Low first thing in the morning, but may rise with direct sun and daytime warming. Start early, and stay on colder slopes in an attempt to 'beat the heat'. Pay attention to wet, gloppy snow, snow falling out of trees, rollerballs, and loose wet avalanches. 

    Slides may become larger near and above treeline where they could begin to gouge into deeper, recent storm layers...but we're not sure if or when that's going to start happening. Loose wet avalanches could also become large if they run in large or complex terrain features. Below treeline you could still see some activity, but in most places there isn't sufficient amount of snow for substantial avalanches.  Even a small wet loose avalanche could be consequential though, if it plunges down onto a flat roadway, knocks you off your feet, or carries you over a cliff.

    Cornices could also begin to fail. Give these hazards a wide berth and consider avoiding their potential runout while traveling, especially during the heat of the day. There's also potential for wet slabs. These are most likely on steep, rocky and unsupported slopes that receive direct sun, and could be triggered by rollers or loose wet sluffs. The best advice is to move off of steep slopes before the snowpack becomes punchy and unsupportable. 

    (4/2/2022)

    An example of wet avalanche debris from late March. Silverstar Mtn

    Photo: Public obs

Avalanche Discussion

Saturday should be one of the warmest, sunniest days in the past week. We're in the middle of a gradual warming trend following a couple weeks of below normal temperatures and snowy weather in April. This alone is reason enough to be cautious in the mountains this weekend. Areas near Washington Pass picked up another 2-4" by Thursday morning. On Thursday Josh found a wide range of conditions on Silverstar from dry ground on lower elevation, south facing slopes to cold, winter like snowpack on north-facing slopes in the alpine. 8-12" of recent snow had accumulated over a crust from the 18th, and up to 2ft was over the crust from the April 8th. They saw and heard about 5 loose wet avalanches off steep, rocky west-facing slopes before noon with the warming temperatures. Some of these were large (D1.5). No wind slabs were found. Elsewhere, the wind may have formed more significant slabs.

Information and observations have been limited. The North Cascades Highway SR 20 is currently gated at Silverstar, though the road is plowed further west. Until the road opens, WSDOT allows recreational access on the North Cascades Highway near Washington Pass from Friday-Sunday. With road clearing operations underway midweek and other professional operations inactive, any observations are much appreciated. If you're out in the mountains, let us know what you see. 

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