Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You may be able to trigger 1-2 foot thick avalanches in both wind-affected and sheltered terrain. Avalanches are most likely on shady aspects (facing NW-N-NE) above about 8000' and also where the wind formed large drifts or slabs.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2

    What is it?  Over the weekend, skiers and riders triggered several 1-2 foot thick avalanches. Many of the slides appeared to fail on a thin layer of surface hoar, and crust + facet combos exist on some slopes lacking the surface hoar. While none of the slides were "huge", around half were large enough to bury or injure people, and all were capable of carrying someone into a gully, through trees, or over cliffs.

    Where is it?  The recent avalanche activity was focused on NW-N-NE aspects between 8000-10,000' in elevation (middle and upper elevation terrain—view graphic here). The avalanches released in sheltered and wind-affected terrain. Very steep slopes over about 35* are most likely to produce avalanches. 

    How can you recognize it?  The surface hoar layer is thin, and the crystals are relatively small, making it difficult to identify this layer in snowpits. In the terrain described above, assume this problem exists until proven otherwise. You may or may not experience snowpack collapsing and/or cracking while traveling. These red flags are obvious signs of instability.        

    How can you manage it?  Surface hoar is a sneaky weak layer. These avalanches may break wider than expected or higher on the slope above you. You may be able to trigger a slide after several riders have safely climbed or descended a given slope, and there's an outside chance you could remotely trigger an avalanche from gentler terrain above, below, or to the sides of steeper slopes. Avoid middle and upper elevation slopes on the northern half of the compass that are steeper than about 35* to significantly reduce the chances of finding trouble. Steer clear of large wind drifts or slabs in very steep terrain. Picture where even a small avalanche could carry you before committing to playing in large or consequential avalanche paths.

    ADDITIONAL DISCUSSION: In addition to the persistent weak layers in the top few feet of the snowpack, there are more deeply buried layers to keep on your radar. These facets (often above, below, or in between crusts) are buried beneath dense, 2-4+ thick slabs—making them difficult to trigger but capable of producing very dangerous avalanches. While triggering them is unlikely, it can't be ruled out in steep, rocky, wind-affected alpine terrain. Slopes like these have variable snow depths, with thinner areas of the snowpack that allow us to impact deeper weak layers. 

    (1/15/2023) This avalanche was triggered by a snowmobiler in upper Stanley Lake Cr. at the very northern end of the Sawtooths. The rider managed to get off the slab and was not caught. The slide likely released on a persistent weak layer that buried in early January. 8000', NE.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    We're a few days out from the last storm, and observations indicate most wind slabs have stabilized. However, some of the larger wind features may still be sensitive to your weight—especially on very steep slopes over about 35* where the slabs sit atop persistent weak layers (see Problem 1). Look for wind slabs near ridgelines, in or on the sides of gullies and chutes, and lower in cirques below large, vertical rock faces in the Sawtooth Mtns. Pay attention to how deep and stiff the snow you are traveling in is. If the snow becomes deeper or harder,  you are likely traveling through a wind-loaded area. Cracks shooting out from your skis or machine clearly indicate that you've found an unstable wind slab. Any triggered wind slab has the potential to "step down" to the buried persistent weak layers described in Problem 1, causing a larger avalanche.

Avalanche Discussion

Over the weekend, skiers and riders triggered 7 or 8 avalanches large enough to catch and carry people (view Avalanche activity here). Time does tend to heal all "snowpack wounds", and the probability of triggering avalanches is lower now than a few days ago. How much lower? 

Evidence supporting more stable conditions:

  • No snowfall or significant wind-loading in 72 hours
  • No fresh avalanches observed since Sunday
  • Decreasing reports of snowpack collapsing or cracking

Evidence supporting potentially unstable conditions:

  • It's only been 72 hours since a rash of human-triggered avalanches failed on buried surface hoar, a tricky persistent weak layer
  • Concerning snowpack structure
  • Some recent snowpack tests yielded unstable results 

What does it all mean? Triggering avalanches is less likely today than in recent days, but a local professional nailed it when he said it's "far from open season." Many professionals and recreationists are dabbling in avalanche terrain less than about 35* in steepness, but folks continue to stay off of most primetime, 35-45* slopes. A couple of parting thoughts if you're planning to play or travel on steep slopes today:

  1. Consider the recent avalanche activity location plot (see below or view graphic here). It paints a clear picture of where you're most likely to trigger similar slides.
  2. If you're playing or traveling in these places, think about the consequences of triggering an avalanche before you "let 'er rip." While accurately determining the chances of triggering a slide on the buried surface hoar is difficult at best, you can easily identify the consequences of getting caught in an avalanche. If a slide would push you over rocks or cliffs, through trees, or into a creek, the hair on the back of your neck should stand up. Pay attention to that.  

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