New snow today has the potential to form thin snow drifts late in the day and overnight. Use caution around drifted snow at upper and middle elevations, especially in steep, high-consequence terrain.
Thin, isolated pockets of wind slab may form late today and overnight. Watch for areas that are relatively clean, smooth, chalky-looking, or drifted in appearance—these are likely to be wind slabs. Use caution around these new slabs, especially in consequential terrain where getting knocked off your feet would be a dangerous proposition.
As of 5am this morning, there are no well-defined avalanche problems at any elevation. The snowpack has settled and melted after recent unsettled weather bringing unseasonably warm temperatures and rain. Normal snowfield start zones are poorly developed and remain disconnected.
Today’s wind slab avalanche problem is based entirely on new snow falling today and tonight with increasing wind speeds . Expected snow totals of 2-3 inches during the daylight hours come with a fairly high level of confidence. Snow totals overnight from upslope snow showers are less predictable and may or may not add another inch or two new snow. Either way, these wind slabs will be small and easily avoidable.
Another factor limiting the overall consequence of the incoming snow, is the overall lack of snowfields capable of producing an avalanche. Both size and distribution of any new wind slabs will be limited by this overall lack of developed snowfields.
Long Sliding Falls: Traveling in steep avalanche terrain today will require full mountaineering equipment including stiff boots, crampons, and an ice ax. Long sliding falls are dangerous, injuring or killing more people than avalanches in our forecast area.
New! December Weather History Chart. MWAC has published a monthly view of our weather and snowpack tracker. Forecasters use this to help visualize the running history of weather events, corresponding avalanche hazard ratings and avalanche cycles. We hope you find this helpful to keep your mental model of the snowpack accurate.
OBSERVATIONS: Please consider submitting an observation of what you are seeing in your travels. Submitting an observation hones your skills, informs other users, and improves our forecasts.
The Lion Head Summer Trail is now closed for the season due to avalanche risk. The Lion Head Winter Route is open.
