Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

We're starting to get message fatigue here. Yet another round of juicy Pacific storm systems are forecast to impact the West this weekend. Wildly fluctuating temperatures, wind and snow levels have been the norm. The top few feet of the snowpack host wet layers, a rain crust and soft snow. Mmm...quite the sandwich. Today will be very windy, with cooling temps and new snow accumulation of another foot or more. Multiple avalanche problems are possible. Deep snow conditions and avalanche hazard require expert level backcountry skills, currently. Today is a good day to stick to low angle terrain and clear of large avalanche path runout zones. Pay attention to the five red flags of avalanche danger at all times. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–4

    The wind direction for the entire duration of the January storms has been out of the SW-S-SE. Wind slabs and cornices are becoming large. High moisture content in the new snow and air allows for prime production. Drifts 2–4 feet thick were encountered yesterday. New and existing wind slabs / cornices will likely be sensitive today. Recent avalanches, blowing snow, wind pillows and snow surface clues will all indicate the presence of wind slabs. Your plan today should be to avoid steep, wind loaded slopes.

    Wind and weather data from the past three days on Mt. Shasta, near and above treeline.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    An additional foot or more of new snow is forecast today. The snowpack layering is upside down: denser, more cohesive snow on top of looser, lower density snow with a rain crust in the mix too. Warmer, wetter or more wind-affected snow grains can quickly coalesce into slabby snow. Chunky, moist, loose-wet style storm slabs could be easily cut off small test slopes yesterday. Add another foot of new snow on top of that today and the recipe could be good for storm slab avalanches, failing within the new snow or gouging down into lower layers of the snowpack. Use any small test slope you can find to get an idea of what larger slopes might be like. Storm slab danger is most likely immediately during or just after heavy snowfall and rapid accumulation.

Avalanche Discussion

DEEP SNOW CONDITIONS:  In the past, rangers have responded to 911 calls of people heading into the backcountry, particularly on snowmobiles, becoming stuck in deep snow and not able to get themselves out. If you're heading into the wild, don't get casual day syndrome. Make sure your skills match the conditions. It's the real deal out there, folks. Expert level riding/skiing and terrain navigation is required. Be prepared. 

FUN FACT: For January and the year of 2023, precipitation for Mount Shasta City is 517% of normal. Talk about starting off on the right foot. Average normal is 2.77 inches of water, measured is 14.32 inches!

ROAD & RECREATION SITE STATUS: 

  • The Everitt Memorial Highway and Castle Lake road are CLOSED (Snowmobile access up Everitt Memorial Highway is not possible. Best access is Pilgrim Creek or Deer Mtn Sno-Parks)
  • Pilgrim Creek and Deer Mountain Snowmobile Park's are OPEN
  • Mt Shasta Ski Park - OPEN
  • Sand Flat Winter Trails - CLOSED
  • Nordic Center - OPEN

Regions covered