Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A handful of inches of new snow comes with strong wind. You could trigger shallow wind slabs near and above treeline. Look for clues such as firm or textured surfaces, and steer around steep slopes if you find shooting cracks with freshly formed slabs.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    4-6" of new snow combined with moderate to strong winds should create fresh, reactive slabs at upper elevations. You're more likely to find these at higher elevations where wind effects should be more prevalent. Slabs could break on a newly formed crust from previous days of warm temperatures and theres a small chance slabs could break on a layer of buried surface hoar from early January. Be especially cautious near ridges, beneath large cliffs, and on open steep slopes, that could serve as likely trigger points. 

    You can identify slabs through textured surfaces, and stiffer snow. With these, look for signs of instability as you travel such as long shooting cracks, and consider using small test slopes to gain more information on how the snow is reacting. If you observe signs of unstable snow, steer steeper or more consequential features.

    Wind slabs will often live under cornices like this. 

    Photo: Willie Webster

Avalanche Discussion

We're in for a change with cooler temperatures, and some welcome new snow. This front should favor areas near the crest, with a drastic snow shadow further east. Observers reported that wet loose slides were easily triggered with the very warm temperatures on Thursday. On Wednesday, Willie reported thick wind drifts above 6,500ft in the mountains north of Mazama, and obvious plumes from ridgelines. From Sunday through Tuesay, observers  reported triggered small avalanches in pockets of freshly drifted snow. 

We've been tracking a layer of buried surface hoar from January 5th. Near Washington Pass, it's ~2' below the snow surface. On Monday, observer Willie Webster found large (5-10mm) rounding buried surface hoar near the crown of one of many avalanches that ran during the MLK storm near Rainy Pass. January 12 was the last known human triggered slidethat we know of in this zone on this layer, though one was triggered on the 19th on the east side of Stevens Pass. That same day an observation near Tiffany Mt indicated that triggering avalanches on the 1/5 surface hoar may be possible in this portion of the zone. Warm, wet conditions have transofmrmed previously weak, low elevation snow of the foothills into melt forms. 

The last significant cycle of avalanches occurred around the 13th and 14th, with wet avalanches in the lowland hills gouging to the ground and multiple very large natural avalanches running on persistent weak layers higher in the mountains. A very large slide in Liberty Bowl/Blue Lake Pk likely occurred on January 13 or 14th. This avalanche failed on the Christmas crust and stepped down to the mid-November facets (11/22). The crown depth was 5-8 feet. Check out the media reel below and our observation platform to see more.

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