Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering small to large wind slab avalanches will be possible near and above treeline. These avalanches may then step down, triggering deep persistent slab avalanches that are very large and usually unsurvivable. Avoid wind loaded, rounded, pillowed, rippled and corniced slopes steeper than 30° near and above treeline. Any loaded aspect is highly suspect. At elevations below 10,000', expect generally low avalanche hazard. Small isolated pockets of instability may still be lurking, so avoid steep slopes with gullies, canyons, and other terrain traps. 

Avalanche problems

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3.5

    Sometime around January 16, an approximately 1.5m thick (possibly thicker) hard slab avalanche occurred in the Silverton Avalanche Path on a northeasterly slope of Fremont. See photo, and get more information here. This avalanche likely failed in depth hoar near the ground, similar to the HS-N-R3-D3-O avalanche on Fremont, during the New Year’s storm cycle. So far this season, three known persistent slab avalanches have occurred on northeasterly slopes, with starting zones between ~11,400' and ~11,800'. 

    Near and above treeline, avoid all wind loaded slopes, pillowed slopes and cornices. Avoid steep convex rollovers. 

    "Deep Persistent Slabs are very difficult to predict and manage. They are low-probability high-consequence events. If you are caught in one, you are unlikely to survive. Often the only evidence of the problem arrives too late as a large, deadly, and unexpected avalanche. The only real effective risk management strategy is to avoid areas where you suspect a Deep Persistent Slab. They are most commonly triggered from shallow spots in the snowpack [usually located at the margins of the slab or slope]. Avoiding these areas is one way to reduce risk. Give yourself a wide safety buffer to handle the uncertainty, potentially for the remainder of the season." - CAIC

    (1/18/2023) Estimated at HS-N-R2-D2-U. Likely failed at depth hoar near the ground, and likely occured on MLK day, January 16, 2023. Photo: Troy Marino

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Winds were transporting snow near and above treeline yesterday. Avoid wind loaded, rounded, pillowed, rippled or corniced slopes, as these may have new sensitive wind slabs. 

Avalanche Discussion

Based on observations on Wednesday, at least two natural D2 avalanches occurred during the MLK storm cycle. 

There were probably more avalanches during the MLK storm cycle, and perhaps more observations will come in over the next few days. The difficult to access nature of the Kachina Peaks Wilderness and San Francisco Peaks makes timely observations difficult. Especially during long storm cycles.

This afternoon looks to be sunny and gorgeous. These beautiful, winter-wonderland bluebird days will lure skiers and boarders towards avalanche terrain, but it has only been 36 hours since our large storm cycle and conservative choices will be warranted. General Info: KPAC's current schedule for a full danger-rating forecast will be weekend days and holidays. Danger ratings will be issued with weekday storms, pending staffing availability. During non-storm weekdays, expect a general summary with no rating. 

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For more information on the Avalanche Danger Scale, watch this video!

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