Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Saturday will be a transition day following a wet, mild, and windy few days. Wet snow avalanches are still possible at mid and lower elevations while fresh wind slabs may have formed above treeline Friday night.  The Hurricane Ridge area lost a fair bit of snow during the warm-up so come prepared to navigate low snow travel hazards as you move around the backcountry. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    You may see evidence of a natural wet loose cycle from earlier in the storm as temperatures rose and snow changed to rain.  Natural wet loose avalanches should be unlikely after several days of rain and warm temperatures.  However, if you are on a long steep slope, you might be able to trigger a wet loose avalanche that picks up steam further downhill.  With lots of rocks, tree branches, open creeks, etc starting to make an appearance again, you'll want to make sure a small avalanche doesn't take you for a ride and rake you through some painful hazards.  

    Earlier this winter we experienced a cycle of glide avalanches (wet snow avalanches that run to ground).  While this most recent AR event may not be as wet or prolonged as what we saw around the Christmas period, you'll want to avoid traveling in or below steep slopes with smooth underlying bed surfaces, like the 20th of June path for example.  Wet slab and glide avalanches are notoriously unpredictable, with changes happening out of sight in the snowpack over time.  They typically cannot be directly correlated to the most intense/warmest part of a storm cycle.  They should be less likely on Saturday but they should shape how you travel.  Avoid lingering near or below large avalanche slopes with smooth bed surfaces until we enter a prolonged cool period. 

    (12/26/2022)

    Just a few weeks ago the 20th of June slide path avalanched to the ground.  This glide avalanche occurred during the prolonged mild and rainy period preceding the 26th of Dec.   

    Photo: Sam siemens-luthy

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    It's difficult to say whether the tail end of the atmospheric river along with a slow cooling trend will bring about enough new snow to create a new wind slab problem at upper elevations.  If you head to higher terrain, observe how much new snow has been drifted along ridgelines and onto lee slopes.  Use small test slopes to test the bond of new snow to the old snow surface. Consider steering around steeper open slopes with freshly drifted snow and avoiding rocky chutes at higher elevations to minimize your chances of triggering a wind slab avalanche Saturday.   

    With enough new snow overnight, you might trigger a small wind slab avalanche in higher terrain. 

    Photo: Paradise area early Dec 2022

Avalanche Discussion

The Hurricane Ridge area picked up about 2" of water through Friday 5 pm over this atmospheric river event, much of it rain. Other parts of the Olympics, especially along the southern slopes, will have been hit much much harder.  Limited observations from NPS staff on Friday in the Hurricane Ridge area reported no significant natural avalanche activity and the general loss of snowpack since last weekend.  Few backcountry travelers were out sampling the wet snow.  We'll look forward to storms next week to hopefully round out coverage in the area. 

 If you're out in the snow (or slush), share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

2022-2023 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December-early April.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings when conditions warrant.  New for this season, we will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through late April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]. 

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