Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

While you’ll only see a few inches of new snow by the end of the day Thursday, strong winds could drift this dusting into slightly deeper slabs. Watch for blowing snow and pay attention to your local wind direction to anticipate which slopes you want to avoid.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    The new snow on its own won’t create much in the way of avalanche danger, but strong winds should easily build new and reactive wind slabs throughout the day. This will be particularly true at higher elevations.  Fortunately, you can easily spot this issue. Just watch for blowing snow and pay attention to the wind direction. These two simple clues should help you feel and see which aspects are being loaded with snow. Pay close attention to commonly wind-affected areas such as exposed features (even well below ridgelines),  the base of cliffs, and confined gullies. Since this isn’t a very big storm, these new slabs should remain fairly small and shallow. Even still, these little avalanches could hurt you if they carry you over a cliff or into rocks and trees.

    (12/3/2022)

    Actively blowing snow, freshly building sharp cornices, and textured surfaces. All easy-to-identify signs of wind-loading. Look for slabs to develop on the slopes on the left side of the picture.

    Photo: Dallas Glass

Avalanche Discussion

This storm should only bring 2-4 inches of snow to the East South zone. However, the winds will be the real story. Very strong and gusty winds could make travel at mid and upper elevations quite challenging and cold. By the afternoon winds and snow showers should start to decrease as we head into a slightly quieter weather pattern for about 24 hrs. 

The snowpack around the East South zone is still relatively thin. Expect open creeks, holes around rocks, and shallowly buried brush to make travel much trickier and more dangerous. Give yourself a little extra time to navigate around these obstacles. 

Generally below about 5600 ft, the snowpack consists entirely of storm snow from 11/29 till the present. Above 6000 ft, a slightly deeper and more layered snowpack exists. Near the ground, weak sugary facets have been observed. While there have not been any recorded avalanches on these persistent grains in this region, they are the same layer causing the persistent slab problem in the nearby East Central zone. Similarly, Crystal Mt Ski Patrol (near the border with the East South), triggered several avalanches with explosives on these older snow layers. This weak snowpack structure combined with these few avalanche observations reminds us of the often variable and fickle nature of the early season snowpack and persistent weak grains. If your plans call for traveling on high elevations shaded aspect make sure to at least discuss this isolated possibility of a much larger avalanche problem.

Regions covered