Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Periods of intense snowfall and wind will continue the threat of triggering slab avalanches, especially at upper elevations. You're most likely to find trouble where the wind has formed fresh drifts or stiffened the snow. New snow is also adding additional stress on the weak snow buried deeper in the snowpack. These deeper layers are not only very weak but may only need small amounts of new snowfall or wind to stress the structure and cause large avalanches. Cautious route-finding and conservative decision-making are essential, particularly in terrain trap features that are common to Togwotee, as well as upper-elevation terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The weight of this new snow is adding stress to a variety of weak layers in the snowpack. This stress is amplified in areas where dense wind slabs may form today.

    Our most concerning persistent weak layers sit near the middle and base of the snowpack. An avalanche failing on one of these layers has the potential to be very large, particularly in open and well-connected terrain features. Persistent weak layers are difficult to deal with. They can produce avalanches many weeks after they are buried and they provide fewer and fewer obvious signs of instability with gradual snowfall. They can break wider than you might expect and may be triggered remotely, from gentle terrain adjacent to steeper slopes.

    Additionally, wind slabs may build today along exposed ridges and in cross-loaded gullies as well as lower on slopes. Togwotee has many steep rolls and terrain trap features right off of the road. Even a small avalanche in these areas could prove deep and consequential. Cracks shooting from your boards or sled are an obvious sign that you’ve found a sensitive slab. Smaller wind slab avalanches have the potential to step down to more deeply buried weak layers resulting in a large avalanche.

    (1/7/2023)

    Persistent slab avalanche. Split Rock Creek: 9000' NE aspect

Avalanche Discussion

Each new storm buries a new interface to think about. Depending on the character of the older snow, the bond at this interface can vary significantly in strength. Generally speaking, as the complexity of the snowpack increases, it becomes more and more difficult to confidently assess the stability of a given slope. You can try to limit some of the uncertainty present when dealing with complex avalanche problems by keeping track of these layers in the areas that you frequent. The challenge this poses is no small task.

In the Greys Zone over the past week, I've found snowpack depths ranging from 12 inches to over 3 feet deep; one sub-zone had widespread melt-freeze crust from a recent clearing above 9,000 feet, even on northerly and shaded aspects, while another held soft, dry snow still even in the lower elevations. I've found buried surface hoar, thick layers of facets in the middle and base of the pack, and also thick crusts at the base of the pack with very little facet development-literally every condition in the book. Microclimate zones exist within each larger range (whether it's the west vs east of the Tetons, the differences along the Continental Divide at Togwotee, or the Salt Range vs Wyoming Range of the Greys), and each is worth getting to know closely if you are frequenting it.  With any snowpack, it's very important to recognize when you are dealing with a problem that is more complex than we as humans can typically fully understand. We can still make our best assessment with all the tools available to us, and our best bet is to always step back if surprised by something. Pad your uncertainty by building healthy margins for error into your travel practices, and tread lightly with rapidly changing snow conditions today.

 

Regions covered