Avalanche forecast

Uintas

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Our snowpack teeters on the edge, especially on the south half of the range from Currant Creek to Daniels, just waiting for a trigger like us to roll along and knock the legs out from underneath-

HIGH avalanche danger is found on all steep, mid and upper elevation slopes. The danger is most pronounced in the wind zone at and above treeline, in terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Human triggered avalanches are VERY LIKELY. Don't get surprised... low elevation terrain is a player as well and you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger with human triggered avalanches LIKELY on steep, shady slopes. Lower elevation south facing terrain that had little or no snow snow prior to the big midweek storm offer MODERATE avalanche danger and human triggered avalanches are possible on steep slopes.

Where to ride today? You can have a blast carving deep trenches or meadow skipping in big open terrain with no overhead hazard, simply meaning... no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    4

    Snowpit profiles, stability tests, and the biggest clue to avalanches... avalanches, all reveal the mid pack PWL is guilty until proven otherwise. Mark was in the Mill Hollow zone yesterday and his obs confirm our suspicions.

    Avalanche conditions are deceptively tricky and here's why-

    I don't think we'll see widespread natural avalanche activity today and that's what makes our setup so dangerous right now. The hazard won't be in yer face. Persistent weak layers (PWL) just like we're dealing with right now, need a little provocation like us to roll along and kick the legs out from underneath. Often it's where the slab is thinner and that's the spot we can collapse the slope and irritate the weak layer. In fact, a common theme with this type of avalanche dragon are slides triggered lower downslope than you might expect. And we all know... that's a super dangerous setup, because once the avalanche is initiated, the entire roof crashes down on us. With all the great low angle riding available, there's no reason to pull on the avalanche dragons tail.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    Data dump from Windy Peak (10,662') lays out the timeline for the evolution of the storm and rising avy hazard.

    Winds are always the great equalizer for the eastern front and there's no shortage of snow available to blow around and form dense, fresh drifts sensitive to our additional weight. Here's where it gets tricky because once initiated, a seemingly manageable wind drift may break to weaker layers of snow buried deeper in the snowpack as it crashes down onto the slope below, producing an avalanche that quickly gets out of hand. Lose the wind and you lose the problem. The key to riding safely is simply avoiding fat rounded pillows of snow, especially if they're sounding hollow like a drum.

Avalanche Warning

The avalanche danger is HIGH and an AVALANCHE WARNING is in effect from 6AM MST this morning to 6 AM MST Sunday for the mountains of northern Utah and southeast Idaho.

This AVALANCHE WARNING includes the Wasatch Range, Bear River Range, Uinta Range, and the Manti-Skyline Plateau.

Very dangerous avalanche conditions exist. With heavy snowfall and strong winds, both human-triggered and natural avalanches are likely. Please stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees.

Special Announcement

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Recent Activity

Avalanche activity Thursday in the image above from Upper Weber Canyon clearly illustrates the size and scope of our current avalanche problem.

Additional avy activity and a slew of Uinta obs areHERE.

Snow and Weather

Nowcast- An underwhelming shot of snow slid through the region late last night, delivering an evenly distributed 5" of dense, heavy snow across the range. West and southwest winds began ramping up around suppertime and really got to work at the turn of the new day, cranking 35-60 mph along the high ridges. Temperatures are mild, registering in the mid 20's and low 30's. Recent winds worked over our big open slopes, but lose a little elevation, seek out wind sheltered terrain, and you'll be greeted with outstanding riding and turning conditions on a go-anywhere base.

Forecast- Expect Scattered snow showers this morning with snow beginning to fall in earnest by days end, stacking up an additional foot by closing bell. Winds blast into the 70's and 80's along the high peaks while temperatures remain mild, topping out in the mid to upper 30's.

Futurecast- The storm homesteads over the region through Monday. There's a bit of uncertainly with exact timing for each wave of weather, but Atmospheric Rivers can light up the western Uinta's. This is the full-meal-deal and the bottom line is... big water, big wind, big snow!

Pasted! Ted was in the Gold Hill zone and reports a phat, white, North Slope. His most excellent writeup and insight are found HERE.

Lots of excellent trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.

Additional Info

Weather stations-

And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)

Observations-

Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program

General Announcements

Please join me Wednesday Jan. 4th at 5:30 and we'll discuss what's going on with our snowpack, our avy danger, and how we can move around in the backcountry safely.

Issued at 03:49 on Saturday December 31st, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Sunday January 1st, 2023.

Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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