Avalanche forecast

Soldier & Wood River Valley Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You're most likely to trigger avalanches big enough to bury people on slopes where the wind has formed drifts or stiffened the snow surface. While the chance of triggering a large avalanche is highest on slopes where the wind deposited snow, avalanches are possible in steep, wind-sheltered terrain—even at lower elevations. Avalanches may be triggered remotely—from gentler terrain above, below, and to the sides of steep slopes.

Conditions are most dangerous near Dollarhide Summit and the crest of the Smoky Mtns where the most snow fell overnight.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    What is it?  1.5-3 foot thick slabs overlie persistent weak layers (sugary facets, surface hoar, and/or crusts) on most aspects and elevations. Wind-loaded slopes are most dangerous, and slopes sheltered from the wind are suspect. Recent snowfall is stressing the buried weak layers. 

    Where is it?  This problem is widespread through all elevations and most aspects. While the vast majority of December's avalanche activity occurred on W-N-E aspects (see graphic below), observers have reported snowpack collapsing and/or poor snowpack test scores on sunnier SW-S-SE slopes. Wind-loaded slopes are more dangerous than sheltered terrain. The upper Warm Springs Ck and Dollarhide Summit areas received more snowfall than other parts of this zone; avalanches could be larger and easier to trigger in those locations.

    How can you recognize it?  This persistent slab problem is widespread; assume it exists on all slopes until proven otherwise. You may experience snowpack collapsing and/or cracking while traveling. These red flags are obvious signs of instability. Wind-loaded areas feel stiffer under your skis or sled and keep you from easily sinking into the snowpack.         

    How can you manage it?  Unfortunately, avoiding slopes steep enough to slide is the only surefire way to manage this problem.Persistent slab avalanches are tricky. If you're playing near steep slopes, you could trigger slides remotely (from gentler terrain above, below, and to the sides of steep slopes—explanatory video here). These avalanches may break wider than expected or higher on the slope above you. 

    (12/13/2022) Numerous large avalanches were observed in the Lake Ck Drainage N of Ketchum. This large avalanche is on a NW-facing slope at 8,400' near Triple Pk.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    What is it?  We observed several wind slab avalanches in the Boulder Mtns in recent days (see photo). Last night, strong, gusty winds formed or built hard and soft wind slabs. Some slabs have been growing for a few days. The wind slabs lie above a variable surface (facets, some surface hoar, crusts, "regular" snow, wind-polished surfaces, etc); some slabs will be easy to trigger while others may be "stubborn" or hard to trigger. Smaller wind slab avalanches could "step down", triggering the large persistent slab avalanches described in Problem 1. 

    Where is it?  Strong and extreme winds can form slabs in unusual and unpredictable locations. You may find them far below ridgelines, on the sides of gullies, and near prominent terrain features in normally sheltered areas. The upper Warm Springs Ck and Dollarhide Summit areas received more snowfall than other parts of this zone; avalanches could be larger and easier to trigger in those locations.

    How can you recognize it?  Cracks shooting out from your skis or sled are an obvious sign of instability. Watch for drifts, dunes, and ripples on the snow surface. Wind slabs can have a smooth, chalky appearance and feel and sound hollow, like a drum. Wind-deposited snow will be stiffer and keep your skis or snowmobile closer to the surface.       

    How can you manage it?  Given the increased chances of triggering a large persistent slab avalanche on wind-loaded slopes, the prudent move is to avoid obviously wind-loaded avalanche terrain. Hard slabs are notoriously unpredictable; these avalanches may break wider than expected or higher on the slope above you. 

    (12/18/2022) This large avalanche was observed in the Boulder Mountains on Sunday evening. It failed in heavily wind-effected terrain on a W/NW facing slope at 9,700'.

Avalanche Discussion

In recent days, the decrease in avalanche activity and less frequent reports of snowpack collapsing indicate that stability is improving. However, the snowpack structure (what the buried facets and surface hoar look like) remains both UGLY and concerning. With the ongoing snowfall + wind loading event, today is not the day to get more aggressive with your terrain choices. This zone was littered with large natural avalanches last week, and this storm is a setback on the road to recovery.   

While the danger level did not increase, conditions are a bit more dangerous now than yesterday. Have fun, enjoy the fresh snow and tolerable temperatures, and picture where an avalanche would carry you before diving into steep, consequential avalanche terrain. 

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