Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The snowpack just took another big hit, with up to a foot of snow and significant wind drifting over the past 2 days. Dangerous conditions exist at all elevations.  Adjacent to or in steep terrain, you can easily trigger a large or very large avalanche that breaks on weak snow near the ground.    The new snow will also be sensitive to triggers where winds have drifted it into thicker slabs.  Make conservative terrain choices while the snowpack recovers from this significant loading event. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–3

    Slabs ranging from 3 to 5+ feet thick have formed around the compass and at all elevations over faceted weak layers in the lower snowpack.  The poor snowpack structure is likely to be more sensitive in the wake of the most recent storm, and slabs are sensitive to human triggers on some slopes.  Give yourself a wide margin for error given how active and consequential the problem is right now.   Persistent slab avalanches can propagate widely through the terrain, or be remotely triggered from low-angle slopes connected to steeper slopes.  You can reduce your risk of triggering a persistent slab by traveling on slopes that have avalanched during our early January cycles, and you can reliably avoid the problem by traveling on slope angles that are consistently less than 30 degrees.

     

    1/4:  A destructive natural avalanche in Red Lady Bowl broke full-width last week.  This avalanche would be hard to survive.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Up to a foot of fresh snow has been heavily transported by winds that shifted from southwest to northwest yesterday.  Large slabs up to several feet thick have formed below ridges and cornices, in cross-drifted gullies, and below abrupt rollovers.   Avoid steep terrain with signs of recent or active wind drifting.  

    1/12:  This large wind slab failed on Mt. Emmons sometime in the past 24 hours.  

Avalanche Discussion

Our avalanche problems and travel advice are quite different between the two forecast zones, so make sure you are reading the forecast for the area that you are traveling in.  This video demonstrates some of those differences. 

We did really well with this last storm, with reports of 2 to 3 feet of new snow coming from the Northwest Mountains (up to 2.5" of SWE at Schofield) and about 10" to 16" in the Southeast Mountains (up to 1.5" SWE in Gothic and 1" at Butte).  Significant wind transport was ongoing through the entire storm, and will likely continue through this morning.  Even though it is starting to feel like we live in British Columbia, the base of our snowpack is still touting its "Colorado Native" bumper sticker with large-grained, well-developed depth hoar or faceted crusts near the ground.  I expect with clear skies over the next few days, we'll uncover evidence of some large to very large natural avalanches that broke on weak layers near the ground.  Human triggering such avalanches remains a serious concern at all elevations in the Southeast Mountains and on shallow or wind-affected slopes in the Northwest Mountains.  You'll also have to manage for instabilities in the new and drifted snow.  These will be larger and more reactive in wind-loaded terrain at higher elevations.  In areas that saw more than about a foot of snow, you should also manage for lingering storm slab potential. 

The snowpack keeps growing, and we will reap the benefits of a deeper, stronger snowpack in the near future, especially in our deep zone.  Let the snowpack catch its breath after this significant loading event.  

Regions covered