Avalanche forecast

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Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You're most likely to trigger a large avalanche on steep slopes facing the northern two-thirds of the compass. You may be able to trigger avalanches remotely—from flat terrain below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes. Avalanches involving recent snowfall may be easy to trigger and could release naturally—especially on very steep slopes in direct, unobscured sun. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–2.5

    Slabs formed in early February rest above a variety of ugly, widespread, weak layers (facets, surface hoars, crusts, and combinations). You are most likely to trigger a 2-4 foot thick avalanche where:

    • The slope or terrain you're connected to is steeper than about 35 degrees
    • The slope faces the northern 2/3 of the compass
    • The slab is less than about 3' thick—relatively shallower spots may exist where the wind frequently blows, and the slab is not uniformly thick.

    Before triggering an avalanche, you may or may not experience obvious signs of instability like snowpack cracking and collapsing or whumpfing. Persistent Slabs can release in surprising ways, break wider than expected, and release above or hundreds of feet away from where they are triggered. We can't assume tracks on a slope mean it is safe; several people could descend a slope before triggering an avalanche.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Today, expect sun-induced loose snow avalanches. Avalanches are most likely to initiate on any steep slopes sheltered from the wind that are directly facing the sun. These avalanches may be small in many areas but could entrain more snow as they move downhill. Where recent storm snow has settled and become more cohesive, avalanches could break wider than a typical point-release loose snow avalanche. While these avalanches may be large on their own, they could trigger much larger slab avalanches as they move downhill.

    (2/14/2025)

    A small, intentionally triggered loose snow avalanche along Titus Ridge. These types of avalanches are possible on steep slopes sheltered from the wind that are receiving direct sun. Don't rule out the possibility of finding this problem on very steep slopes in shaded terrain. 

    Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

The old, the new and the dry loose: 

There are a variety of potential problems you may encounter today. Be heads up while traveling below slopes, basking in direct sun, or near ridgelines where the wind has drifted the recent snow into thick drifts. The old: Triggering a large avalanche failing on buried weak layers that formed during the January drought is not out of the question. In many places these weak layers are buried 2-3 feet deep, but you may still find trouble in shallow areas. On Thursday, skiers near Hydman Creek Rd. experienced a large collapse and were suspect that they may have remotely triggered an avalanche—this is a bull's-eye data point lending insight to the lingering possiblity of triggering a large thick avalanche.  

The new: You may find small, easy to trigger wind slabs near or along ridge tops. While these avalanches shouldn't be large enough to bury a person, they could knock you off your feet and carry you where you don't want to go—or trigger larger, more destructive avalanches as they move downhill. The trace of new snow that fell overnight may camouflage signs of wind transported snow a(ripples or dunes), be suspect when traveling in wind-exposed terrain. 

The dry loose: If the sun comes out today, natural avalanches are possible on wind sheltered steep slopes basking in direct sun. You can greatly reduce your chances of finding this problem by avoiding travel below a slope receiving direct sunlight. Where recent storm snow has settled and become more cohesive, avalanches could break wider than a typical point-release loose snow avalanche. This zone harbors a lot of terrain capable of entraining lots of snow, that could pack a punch or bury a person. 

Professionals across the forecast areas have chosen to seek lower angle terrain, building wider margin around the possibility of triggering large Persistent Slab avalanches. With the added complexity of today's sun-induced and new snow problems, you can manage your terrain today by avoiding steep sun-drenched slopes, and skiing or riding in lower angle terrain free of terrain traps such as gullies, thick trees, and cliffs. 

Regions covered