Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You could still trigger avalanches in recently wind-drifted snow below sharp ridgelines, the base of cliffs, or confined rocky features. Slabs may have formed over weak snow surfaces and could break wider or deeper than expected. Conservative travel is warranted, and any cracking or collapsing is a sign to choose lower-angle terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Recent winds formed wind slabs along ridgelines and alpine terrain features at mid and upper elevations. We expect most wind slabs to be small, but there's a chance they could step down to deeper weak layers or break wider than anticipated.  If you see cracks shooting away from your equipment or hear whumping collapses, avoid steep wind-loaded slopes below ridgelines, the base of cliffs, and cross-loaded terrain features. Textured surfaces and visible blowing snow are great visual clues to identify wind-affected terrain. 

    With the variability in the old snow surfaces, this problem could be tricky to pin down, and similar slopes may not react the same. With increased uncertainty, build in greater margins of safety and step into new terrain slowly, making frequent assessments before committing to steep slopes.  An avalanche on an east aspect of Snagtooth ridge that propagated into older, deeper snow layers highlights our complex and variable snowpack. (See video) This could be an isolated incident, but it's probably best to keep it in mind when choosing terrain. Consider avoiding shallow, weak areas in the snowpack, typically found in or near steep, rocky terrain. 

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    The recent snow is dry, cold, and cohesionless. In addition, the frigid temperatures are preventing much settlement. While this makes for good snow conditions, you are likely to trigger fast-running, dry loose avalanches. Manage your terrain appropriately by stopping in safe locations, and don't sluff out your backcountry partners below. 

    We expect the new snow lacks enough slab structure for storm slabs in most locations. However, the new snow did fall on widespread weak faceted surfaces, and we can't rule out small storm slab avalanches. Use quick hand pits and test slopes to see and feel how the new snow reacts. If you find stiffer snow over surgery weak snow or hear whumping collapses, choose lower-angle terrain. 

    (1/31/2025)

    Skiers easily triggered dry loose avalanches like in this photos over the weekend. 

    Photo: Chris Bartram

Avalanche Discussion

Over the weekend, 8-16 inches of snow accumulated in the Washington Pass area. The precipitation tapered off on Sunday, but there were widespread reports of small natural and triggered wind slabs, storm slabs, and dry loose avalanches right after the storm. While most of these avalanches were small, one reported avalanche stepped down to a more deeply buried weak layer. On Sunday, an NWAC forecaster investigated this avalanche and found the crown depth widely variable from just 8in to over 3ft deep. This avalanche failed from a shallow spot in the slab and propagated along a crust into the deeper snowpack. The weak layer involved was 1-2mm faceted grains over the crust. We can't say how widespread this problem may be, but it'd be wise to consider it a possibility as you decide where to travel.

On Sunday, an NWAC found mostly dry loose avalanche concerns in the Silver Star area. They found 8-10 inches of storm snow over a thin, almost imperceptible melt-freeze crust with small faceted grains below. Stability tests produced easy, clean shears, but the new snow lacked enough structure to propagate a fracture in large column tests. In that location, there was about 5ft of total snow, and they found a notable weak layer in the lower pack. This layer isn't contributing to any concerns at this time. But it highlights the weak structure that has plagued our snowpack throughout the season. The only ingredient we lack for significant, widespread avalanche cycles is those big, snow-producing Pacific Northwest storms. 

With increased uncertainty about this weak and variable snowpack, don't jump into a "stepping out" mindset too quickly. If you choose to venture into avalanche terrain, consider the unpredictable distribution of old snow surfaces.  Snow fell on slick crusts on steep southerly terrain and weak faceted snow on northern aspects. Meanwhile, east and west aspects likely harbor a mix of both surfaces. 

You can help us gather more data by submitting an observation HERE or via the Avy App. 

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