Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

In most areas, recent snow lacks a slab and rides very well. However, firmer layers formed within the top 1.5 ft of storm snow signal to you that a slab could propagate on weaker layers. If you find this, avoid similar slopes steeper than 35 degrees, which could produce a large avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2

    Shaded aspects are where you might still be able to trigger a large or surprising avalanche. While we think the odds are decreasing, this is not a typical setup at Hurricane Ridge and it warrants your attention. The problematic snowpack structure is where you find the recent snow at 4-finger hardness or greater with an underlying weaker layer of sugar-like facets. 

    Whumping collapses are a bullseye sign of unstable snow, and the best clue that you should stick to terrain under 35 degrees. Keep a large margin away from steeper slopes. The safest option for this problem is avoiding it altogether by staying on low-angle terrain or moving to other aspects.

    If you don't find a slab in the upper snowpack, then it may be reasonable to move onto steeper terrain features, recognizing that overlying structure could change across the slope. Try to avoid larger rollovers and slopes above terrain traps where your odds of surviving an avalanche would be reduced.

    If you travel in other parts of the Olympic Mountains, higher storm totals could have formed a more pervasive slab, which would increase your probability of triggering and the consequences of triggering an avalanche. Heed the same advice in the persistent slab problem, but approach the terrain with added skepticism, preparing to dial back your terrain selection even further if what you find isn't right side up and cohesionless.

    (2/1/2025)

    Human triggered soft slab avalanche (10" deep) on West facing Avalanche Face adjacent to the Hurricane Ridge Ski Area. 

    Photo: NPS

Avalanche Discussion

2-3" of new snow fell at Hurricane Ridge since last Sunday. This has given any slab formation some time to begin to heal, but the process is slow with the cold temperatures. 

Olympic NPS Rangers traveled to the west side of Mt Angeles. They found around 1.5 ft of right-side-up snow above the older weak snow surface (January Drought Layor or JDL). In those locations, they did not find a slab on the crust.

However, last weekend, we have 6 reported human-triggered avalanches, 2 or 3 of which were likely persistent-type avalanches that surprised people by how they wrapped around terrain features. See many of these observations here. The style of several of these avalanches have us concerned that where the right combination of wind loading and weak underlying snow exist, a rider could still trigger such an avalanche with similarly significant consequences.

January ended on a wet note, the opposite of what was a remarkably dry month.  The height of snow at Hurricane Ridge increased from 44" on January 31st to 60" as the storm cycle waned at the Ridge by February 3rd. 

Lower elevations saw warmer temperatures and rain up to 4000-4500' on Friday and are less likely to have surviving weak snow layers or significant new snow avalanche concerns.  

Prior to this storm in the Hurricane Ridge area, a stout ski-supportable crust could be found on steep southerlies. On shady aspects, a skiff of weak snow could be found over a breakable crust. Weak, faceted snow could also be found between several crusts in the upper snowpack.  The new snow has vastly improved travel but be aware of travel hazards still lurking beneath the new snow; stumps, rocks, glide cracks, open creeks, etc may be hidden at lower elevations or aspects that were melted out just a few days ago. 

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