Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Give the snowpack time to adjust as we whipsaw from a significant storm cycle to sunshine on Wednesday.  Cornice fall or smaller avalanches, either wet or dry, could trigger deep, unsurvivable avalanches in higher, more complex terrain.  Don't let a small avalanche at lower elevations with a weak snowpack catch you off guard near a terrain trap. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Since Saturday, 1-2 feet of storm snow has fallen for areas above 5000-6000' and closer to the Cascade crest. Strong winds have formed deeper drifts on lee slopes at higher and mid-elevations.  Give the recent storm snow time to settle by seeking out simple terrain or steeper slopes that are well-supported and limit overhead hazard.  Triggering a storm or wind slab avalanche could trigger a much larger avalanche on older weak snow.  

    Don't let a small avalanche at lower elevations or in thinner snowpack areas catch you off guard at lower elevations.  We've seen small wet slabs, storm slabs potentially breaking on recently buried weak layers, and wet loose avalanches at lower elevations in sagebrush country over the last few days.  

    (2/6/2025)

    This large (D2) slab avalanche was likely triggered by cornice fall. Estimated crown depth is 1.5-2ft. Liberty Bowl, NNW, 7,200ft

    Photo: NCMG

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Tread carefully and put a large buffer between where you travel and large open slopes over 35 degrees that are suspect for persistent slab avalanches. While storm snow instabilities will likely trend down tomorrow, there will be an increasing chance for wet loose avalanches and cornice fall.  Overlapping problems require you to plan conservatively and consider overhead exposure.  

    Expect that avalanches could run into runouts and valley bottoms. With the January Drought Layer (JDL) becoming deeper, you may not receive warning signs of whumpfs or collapses in flatter terrain.  Observers reported a widespread cycle of avalanches on the night of the 22nd into the 23rd near Harts Pass. Some were very large, had deep crowns, and were assumed to have run on the JDL. 

    (2/23/2025)

    A very large (D3) natural avalanche near Harts Pass likely ran on old, weak layers.

    Photo: NCH

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Milder and sunny weather will begin on Wednesday. However, temperature inversions will keep lower and mid-slopes cooler than upper elevations.

    Wherever you are in the terrain, if you start to see rollerballs or natural wet loose avalanches release on steep sunny slopes or below cliff bands, move to lower-angle terrain or shadier terrain. At lower/mid elevations, a new surface crust on Wednesday morning may break down quickly on sunny slopes, paving the way for wet loose avalanches. 

    Wet loose avalanches south aspect of Cutthroat from last March. 

    Photo: Willie Webster

Avalanche Discussion

Professionals reported several natural storm/wind slab avalanches and 2 very large persistent slab avalanches in the Harts Pass area on Monday.  The persistent slab avalanches likely failed on the January Drought Layer (JDL), now 2-3' below the surface.  On  Sunday, travelers near Cutthroat Creek felt several collapses and confirmed natural very large avalanches in the Harts Pass area. 

Heavy, dense snow layering over weak faceted snow in the foothills near the Methow Valley led to reports of whumfping and small avalanches the last 2 days.   

You can help us gather more data by submitting an observation HERE or via the Avy App. 

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