Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E, and on W and SE facing slopes at upper elevations. Human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are LIKELY. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30 degrees. A MODERATE danger exists on most slopes facing the south half of the compass, and on lower elevation, northerly aspects. Human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are POSSIBLE. Continue to exercise caution in these areas, especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass.

Most low elevation, south facing terrain has LOW danger. Small avalanches on isolated terrain features are possible.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    3

    The snowpack has grown quieter over the last couple of days but don't let the lack of outward signs of instability persuade you into thinking everything is okay. The underlying snowpack remains very weak with multiple layers of sugary, faceted snow. The primary culprit is a persistent weak layer of facets that formed in the 2 inches of snow that fell on February 11. This layer is most widespread on northerly aspects, and avalanches triggered on this weak layer will be up to 2 feet deep. They also have the very real potential to step down deeper into the snowpack causing an even more dangerous avalanche. Continue to avoid, steep slopes in these areas.

    The February 11 weak layer can also be found on some south and west facing slopes although it is less widespread. I was unable to locate it in my travels yesterday, but Dave Garcia observed it on a popular, south facing run on Sunday, and he found it to be reactive. He discusses it in this video.

    Photo illustrates weak, faceted layer underneath the most recent snow.

    An extended column test produced results of ECTP17.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    Pesky winds have blown and drifted snow at upper elevations and building slabs on slopes the face primarily NW-N-E-SE. Slabs of wind drifted snow may be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider, but much more concerning is the likelihood that they will step down into buried, weak, faceted layers. For this reason alone, these slopes should be avoided.

    The photo below shows drifted slopes that are primed for avalanches and just waiting for a trigger such as a skier.

General Announcements

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

Special Announcement

Geyser Pass Road: Grand County plowed the road on Tuesday. It remains slick and snow packed. AWD and good tires recommended.

Grooming Conditions: Gavin groomed on Saturday out to Gold Basin and up to Geyser Pass.

Recent Activity

See the avalanche database here.

Snow and Weather

6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data

24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 80" Depth at Gold Basin: 39"

Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: WNW 10-15 Temp: 9° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 72%

Weather

Under a few high clouds, winds from the west northwest are mostly light with moderate speeds along ridge tops. Temperatures are in the single digits. Look for increasing clouds later today ahead of an open wave trough dropping down from the Pacific Northwest. Westerly winds should remain mostly light with high temperatures climbing into the upper 20's at 10,000'. Tonight will be mostly cloudy with a chance for snow developing on Thursday. Points north will be favored and this looks like all we're going to see for awhile.

General Conditions

It was a glorious day in the mountains yesterday with mostly sunny skies, cold temperatures, and light northwesterly winds. Last week's storm has greatly improved the look of things but conditions are still a bit thin on southerly aspects. Wind has affected the snow surface a little bit in open areas, but there is still plenty of soft snow out there. Southerly aspects took some sun and grew damp by afternoon so there are likely to be some lightly crusted surfaces out there. I did not observe any cracking, collapsing, or whumphing in the snowpack yesterday, but stability tests on northerly aspects remained reactive. For more on my travels over to Dark Canyon, see my full observation here.

Snowpack and Weather Data

Snowpack Observations

Gold Basin Storm Stake (10,000')

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')

Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')

NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.

Additional Info

Check out the latest edition of the UAC podcast with Moab forecaster Dave Garcia where he talks about the challenges of forecasting for our remote and isolated range with limited information.

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