Avalanche forecast

Seeley Lake

West Central Montana Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a slide in today's storm snow is our main concern. Avalanches have the potential to run long distances on top of a crust. On steep slopes, steer around areas harboring dense snow that doesn't bond to the underlying crust. When in doubt, default to lower angle terrain free of rollovers. Consider stepping back from steeper terrain as the storm intensifies.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Storm slabs will grow in size and distribution as the storm develops. Fresh snow, rising temperature, and wind loading can cause storm slab avalanches. The Seeley-Swan and Bitterroot zones will receive the most snow and wind loading today.  The southern Bitterroot will have the warmest temperatures. Winds out of the west are expected to be moderate with strong gusts. 

    Identify where storm slabs may exist by looking for stronger snow over weaker snow. Try to figure out the local direction of the wind and identify areas where loading has occurred. Avoid avalanche terrain if you find shooting cracks, whumping, and blocking nearby. 

Avalanche Discussion

Light snow was briefly falling in the Rattlesnake yesterday. It was slow to accumulate. On Tuesday (1/17), the small storm didn’t materialize to expected levels. Most places have one to three inches of fresh low-density siting over the older snowpack. This snow was easy to trigger into loose point releases on steep slopes. 

Expect up to 8 inches of fresh snow for the Seeley-Swan regions and 6 inches for the southern forecast area today. Snow levels could rise as high as 5,000 feet. The dominant concern is new snow is likely warmer and of higher density than the snow which sits over crusts. Loose wet avalanche problems could develop in the afternoon below 5,000 feet, especially in the southern Bitterroot, where rain is more likely. 

Avalanche danger will rise as the storm materializes. If you find more than 6 inches of new snow under your feet or machine, watch for shooting cracks and consider stepping back from steeper terrain.  

Cold nightly temperatures and clear skies before the storm may have allowed surface hoar to grow. The exact extent to which it lingers is unknown. Upper elevation easterly aspects are most suspect- where warm temperatures and wind haven’t had the chance to break it down. 

It’s best to use safe travel techniques when traveling in the backcountry. Look for, identify and communicate instabilities you see to your partners and adjust your travel plans accordingly. 

Ski and ride safe.

Regions covered