Avalanche forecast

Abajos

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

An isolated or MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep, mid and upper elevation north facing slopes where triggering an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer remains possible. The danger increases with elevation and slopes with evidence of recent wind loading are more suspect.

Most low elevation and south facing terrain has generally LOW danger.

It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    A classic setup of strong snow over weak snow is developing on upper elevation, northerly aspects that retained snow from October. This October snow has become loose, weak, and sugary, or as we say, faceted. This faceted snow has formed a persistent weak layer at the base of the snowpack. Recent and wind drifted snow has formed a dense slab on top of this weak snow creating an unstable situation, and human triggered avalacnhes up to 2' deep are likely on steep, northerly facing slopes at mid and upper elevations.

    Extended column test illustrates the weak layer where a slab avalanche is likely to fail.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2

    Blowing and drifting snow has formed new wind slabs on leeward slopes that face primarily NW through E, but the gusty, erratic behavior of the winds may have deposited snow on a variety of aspects. Look for fresh drifts on the leeward sides of terrain features such as sub ridges, gully walls, and rock outcroppings. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. On northerly aspects, wind drifted snow has added stress to older slabs on top of a buried persistent weak layer and dangerous, human triggered avalanches 2'-3' deep are possible. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes, especially those that face the north side of the compass.

Snow and Weather

Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links.

NWS Weather Forecast.

Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')

Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')

Snowpack

Snow totals since last Friday are between 18" and 21" with locally higher amounts at upper elevations. Winds throughout the week have blown and drifted snow on to leeward aspects at mid and upper elevations. Northerly facing slopes above about 9500' have held snow since October, and this old snow has formed a weak, sugary, faceted layer at the base of the snowpack and this is where the trouble is. Recent and wind drifted snow has formed a dense slab over top of this weak, sugary snow and human triggered avalanches on steep, wind drifted slopes that face NW through E are possible. On slopes facing W and SE you may find unstable deposits of wind drifted snow. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability.

General Announcements

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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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