Avalanche forecast

Moab

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 5 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche danger is MODERATE on all steep, north facing slopes where triggering a large, deep, and very dangerous avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer remains possible. The danger increases with elevation and wind loaded slopes are more suspect.

Though the likelihood of triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche continues to trend downward, an avalanche of this magnitude would be un-survivable. Careful terrain choices and avoidance of steep, northerly facing terrain is the only guaranteed strategy.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    3

    It's now been more than a week since the Dec 31 storm event that produced dozens of deep, hard slab avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer of of sugary, faceted snow at the base of the snow pack. Time, warmer temperatures, and compression from the load are helping to heal this weak layer, and snow pits and stability tests performed by myself and local observers indicate that it is gaining strength. Brian Sparks sent in this observation where he observed rounding and bonding of the weak, faceted grains in an area where the snowpack was 195 cm deep. Generally speaking, the deeper the snowpack, the stronger it is. This weak layer still remains a concern in areas where the snowpack is thin, and therefore much more easily affected by the weight of a skier or rider.

    Photo illustrates strong slab over weak, October facets. Extended column tests produced no results and it's becoming harder for the weight of a skier or rider to affect this basal weak layer. Propagation saw tests however show that it is still possible for a slab to fail and propagate. Shallower snowpack areas are likely trigger points.

Special Announcement

Road Conditions: A few inches of new snow fell on the road to Geyser Pass Trailhead yesterday. It's mostly packed down from traffic but AWD and good tires are recommended.

Grooming: Rock star groomer Matt Hebberd from LUNA groomed all trails on Sunday.

Recent Activity

No new avalanches have been reported since the Dec 31 avalanche cycle. Go here for the complete list.

Snow and Weather

24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 5" Base Depth in Gold Basin 47"

Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')

Storm Totals in Gold Basin

Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')

NWS Weather Forecast

Snowpack

It's been more than a week since the Dec 31 avalanche cycle and the odds of triggering a large avalanche continue to decrease each day. A persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow still exists at the base of the snow pack, but snow pits and stability tests indicate that this weak layer is becoming harder to affect. Nevertheless, it is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche on a steep northerly aspect. Likely trigger points include thinner snowpack areas such as the lines along slope margins, near rocky outcrops, or on steep convexities. In terrain such as this, the buried weak layer is more easily affected by the weight of a skier or rider.

General Announcements

Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.

This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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