Avalanche forecast

Northern New Mexico

Taos Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

As we push further away from the last loading event it's becoming more difficult to trigger a persistent slab avalanche.  However, the consequences remain high, as these avalanches would be large, breaking on or near the ground and able to propagate widely across the slope. Avoid likely trigger points on the margins of the slab, rock outcroppings, and steep convex rolls.  Lower angled wind-sheltered terrain will provide safer riding options.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Dense slabs rest on top of weak faceted snow near the ground on northerly aspects.  As we push further away from the last loading event, triggering an avalanche has become more difficult, but not impossible.  Avoid areas where you're more likely to impact and collapse weak layers.  This will be on the margins of the slab, near rock outcrops and steep rollovers. Immediate feedback of unstable snow like audible collapses and shooting cracks most likely will not be present and give you a false sense of security.  You can avoid this problem by staying off of northerly aspects, or taking the time to dig a pit to assess if the slope you plan to play on harbors this strong over weak snowpack structure. Avalanches may break on or near the ground and will be large enough to injure or bury you and could be unsurvivable.  

    Snowpit dug on the margins of the slab in a shallow snowpack.  It's places where the overall snowpack is thinner that you'll be more likely to impact weak layers near the ground. 

Avalanche Discussion

Finally, a break from the constant moderate to strong winds over the last week, with wind speeds dropping to the single digits overnight at ridgelines. These winds have changed the landscape at upper elevations creating a stiff surface that ranges from supportable hard slabs, to breakable windboard and "softish" strips of sastrugi.  Many slopes have been stripped either back to bare ground (Upper elevation west) or have an overall snowpack that is less than 3 feet deep.  Our spatial variability is high right now, with a varying degree of snowpack depths across slopes, with deeper snowpacks over 200cm.  It's going to be places where the snowpack is shallower that you're more likely to impact these facet/depth hoar layers near the ground.

It's been since January 1st that we've had a natural avalanche in the backcountry, and even big triggers like explosives have not been producing avalanches in the last several days. In recent travels and snowpits, facets/depth hoar on the ground continues to remain reactive but with hard force to get these weak layers to fail in extended column tests. It leads to the idea that we're pushing towards a dormancy period, with these weak layers on the ground.   This doesn't mean that we're done with these layers for the season but will need a loading event to see these layers become more reactive in the future. 

Below treeline, the overall snowpack is shallower than near and above treeline as we've seen a lot of settlement over the last week.  With warm temperatures and sun, solar aspects have been forming crusts on the surface and north aspects have been decomposing and faceting.  The avalanche danger at this elevation is low, but you may find some unstable snow on isolated north aspects that are steep and more exposed to the wind.  

 

The best skiing and riding can be found on wind-sheltered slopes where "recycled" powder continues to provide good turns.

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