Avalanche forecast

Selkirk Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Ryan and I ventured up to Lunch Peak in the Cabinets yesterday and circumnavigated the summit to hit every aspect.  West aspects were wind scoured.  South aspects were very firm from sun crust and wind.  North aspects held about 8 inches of new snow from Monday but harbored two weak layers below of surface hoar and facets on a crust.  On an east aspect we found a reactive wind slab with the surface hoar and facets on a crust buried more deeply.  Our concern after revealing these weak layers is for the possibility of triggering on steep, open terrain above 5,000 feet, especially where the slope is convex and unsupported at the bottom like above a cliff band.  It's not difficult to get into the gnar so be thinking about these weak layers if you're are stepping up the difficulty of terrain you're seeking.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The wind slab was most pronounced on the east aspect where the windloading was greatest.  We got shooting cracks in the wind slab that pulled out about 1 foot deep, however not in undisturbed snow only above our pit.  These wind slabs will be isolated but could be large across open terrain.  The slab we were on was very dense so it could propagate for quite a distance.  There is a potential to trigger a wind slab that steps down to the deeper surface hoar and facet layer.  Be watching and feeling for wind slabs as you get up to the ridge tops on easterly aspects.  Westerly winds will persist into the weekend.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The surface hoar and facet (sugary) layer above the ice crust are persisting in the pack on north and east aspects.  You may not find these layers everywhere on north and east aspects, but expect them to be there if you're above 5,000 feet.  The facets on the crust, almost 2 feet deep, was the weaker layer with stress tests in the moderate range.  The surface hoar layer would not budge but is still standing loud and proud, a distinct layer.  Surface hoar is a devil and should always be considered in your risk assessment.  On north and east aspects the pack is still cold, mid 20s F.  These layers are not changing much and the facet layer could weaken as the crust decomposes.

Avalanche Discussion

The north and east aspects are really the only places where you will find fresh snow compliments of Monday's storm.  Sliding conditions will be good there but realize as you steepen up the terrain the risk of triggering the persistent weak layers increases.  Convex roll-overs and unsupported slopes will be your greatest concern.  If you're going to get technical with your riding get technical with your terrrain selection, think micro scale, each little feature.  New snow is in the forecast and that will increase the load on the weak layers and also the quality of the riding and sliding.  Pay attention to the possibility of a new layer forming on the surface last night and tonight.  Snow forecast for the Cabinet Mountains could amount to a couple feet by Monday.  Be safe out there.

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