Avalanche forecast

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Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Warmth and sunshine will destabilize the snow on sun-drenched middle and upper elevation slopes. Once thin crusts break down and snow surfaces moisten, push surface snow down a small steep slope. If it entrains, steep slopes may shed, or you could initiate a wet avalanche.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Your likelihood of triggering a loose avalanche on steep slopes will increase on Wednesday.  Wet avalanches should focus on south aspects warming up in the sunshine. This probably becomes more likely as you ascend out of the much colder temeratures at lower elevations in valleys. Note the warmer temperatures as you ascend and pay attention to signs of destabilization, such as rollerball activity, sticky snow, crusts breaking down, or snow shedding off rocks or cliffs. On W, N, or E aspects and in colder valleys, expect dry loose rather than wet loose activity.   When or if you start to see these signs, move to lower angle terrain, shaded aspects, and avoid lingering beneath steep, rocky terrain. 

     

    (12/27/2025)

    Wet loose avalanches often initiate from steep rocks, like in this example from earlier this week. 

    Photo: Adam Butterfield

Avalanche Discussion

Wednesday will be warmer than Tuesday, but we're expecting a bit more high cloudcover than Tuesday. These clouds could limit the loose avalanche activity if they thicken in the middle of the day. Eastern valleys will stay cold, with milder temperatures at upper elevations and perhaps middle elevations. Temperatures  at the Washington Pass Upper Station (6700 ft) got as warm as 36F Monday night, but remained in the lower 30s during the day on Tuesday. The lower station (5400') stayed in the 10s and low 20s. Cold air remains entrenched at lower and middle elevations, but some erosion of that cold pool is likely in western portions of the zone and descending into some middle elevation terrain on Wednesday.

Recent observations suggest that the snow density has a favorable profile (right-side-up) with about 8-12" of lower density snow available for entrainment. If you find more low-density snow in your terrain, avalanches could be larger than forecast - up to size 2.

It has been multiple days since any reports of natural or triggered storm or wind slabs. But there may be some isolated, very steep, alpine terrain features where you could get caught offguard by in a wind-stiffened area. If you engage with higher consequence terrain, some extra snow evaluation is warranted. We have limited information, particularly at middle and upper elevations, so travel with extra safety margins, make frequent observations, and ease into new terrain slowly to account for the uncertainty. 

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