East Slopes South

Due to powerful and irregular wind, look for unstable wind transported snow across a wide swath of terrain on Wednesday. There will be plenty of clues to guide you such as blowing snow, uneven snow surfaces, and a change to denser-feeling snow underneath your equipment. These, as well as shooting cracks and recent avalanches, are clear signs to stick to lower angle, sheltered terrain.

Hopefully Santa's reindeer have been training all year long because they're in for some beastly wind to fly through on Wednesday. Straying from the norm, this storm pattern will initially favor the east slopes of the Cascades. It isn't delivering the most substantial snow totals, unfortunately, but keep in mind that wind-transported snow can create slabs that are more than twice as deep. Because of this abnormal direction, you should also be cognizant of traveling on slopes that are "usually" not wind-loaded.

We have extremely limited snowpack data for the zone, which has significantly reduced confidence in the forecast. We think you’ll likely find anywhere from 8-22 inches of new/recent snow over a prominent crust from the warm-up on 12/18. In typical Cascade fashion, expect the higher totals to be closer to White Pass, Bumping Lake, and Chinook Pass. We have no information about the bond of new snow to the crust in the zone; however, in the nearby East Central zone, some data indicates the bond has improved significantly over time. To mitigate this increased uncertainty, make frequent observations using quick hand-pit tests and take extra time before entering larger or more complex terrain. 

A noteworthy complicating factor in this storm system is the warming trend. Freezing levels will peak around 5000 ft by the evening. Any lingering precipitation on Wednesday could shift to rain at lower elevations. We expect the wind and low precipitation totals to hold off any significant weakening of the snow, but keep this on your radar as you travel around. There could be areas closer to the Cascade Crest that have built up enough snow at lower elevations to raise some apprehension when it comes to avalanche hazard. If you notice that you're beginning to sink through wet, mushy snow, back off of steep slopes and keep a heads up for globs of snow falling from above.

Furthermore, reports continue to trickle in that accessing terrain is quite arduous due to widespread damage from recent atmospheric river events. Despite this long-anticipated start to winter recreation, keep this at the forefront of your trip planning. Be prepared to be turned around due to road closures, washouts, mudslides, or downed trees. The wind on Tuesday night and Wednesday could bring down more trees and block roads anew. Watch for shallowly buried rocks, trees, and high-flowing creeks as well. These hazards can appreciably increase the consequences of getting caught in even a small avalanche.

State and local resources are working diligently to reduce the impacts of destructive storms that occurred earlier this month. We can help by respecting affected communities, complying with road closures, and adhering to ski area uphill travel policies.

If you head out into the mountains, let us know what you see by submitting an observation here.