Avalanche forecast

Continental

Valdez Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired last year. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

The avalanche hazard remains CONSIDERABLE at all elevations. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist.  Human-triggered storm slabs 1-3  feet in depth are LIKELY at mid and upper elevations. Deeper human-triggered avalanches up to 5 feet deep are possible in isolated areas. Wet loose avalanches are likely below 2000. Natural avalanches are possible in all areas. 

Avalanche forecasts are issued Wednesday-Sunday at 8 am.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Dangerous avalanche conditions will continue today. A warm storm with ample amounts of moisture has been adding to the 2 feet of recent snowfall accumulation in mid and upper elevations through our forecast area.  Above 2000 feet, wet heavy snow has been accumulating on top of unconsolidated older storm snow for the last 48+ hours. Upper elevations are expected to have received 2+ feet of additional snow on top of an already thick storm slab. Moderate to strong ridgetop winds have likely redistributed the recent snow into drifts or slabs up to 5 feet thick. These deep and top-heavy storm slabs will create dangerous conditions. Human-triggered avalanches 1-3 are likely to be triggered in terrain over 30 degrees today. 

    Today is a good day to stay on conservative terrain while the snow settles. Identifying and avoiding avalanche terrain (steeper than 30 degrees) is your best defense against the hazards present today. Remember, avalanches from above can run into lower-angle slopes below. 

     

     

    Photo: NWS product

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    A weak layer of snow that formed during the extended sunny weather in March is at or near the breaking point.  This layer does not exist everywhere but has been found above 4000 feet on shaded aspects.  Terrain that is commonly wind-protected will be areas where this layer is most likely to persist.  Where this layer exists VERY DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST.    Slopes that have this weak layer could be triggered by a skier or snowmachiner and produce avalanches 3-5 plus feet in depth.

    Our last clear day of clear weather on Tuesday 4/15, saw avalanches triggered at this layer by snowmachines, skiers, hikers, and helicopters.  Multiple close calls were reported, including this report from Billy Mitchell (see  avalanche observation here) which we are grateful this person was humble enough to report and document well so others can avoid triggering one of these deep slabs.

    Heavy loading has increased the sensitivity of this layer where it exists.  It is possible that some areas have failed due to this loading, while others are waiting for a trigger.  The depth and structure of this layer make identifying it challenging at this point, even for experienced users.

    (4/15/2025)

    Hiker triggered avalanche on Local Spines . Crown depth 3-4 feet/ 500-600 feet wide/ multiple step downs.

    SS-AFu-R3-D3

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Significant amounts of rain and wet snow have fallen at lower elevations.  Natural and human-triggered wet loose avalanches are likely. Expect to find a saturated snowpack below 1500 feet in all areas. These saturated low elevation slopes could potentially fail to the ground. Above 1500 feet, expect to find wet and heavy snow accumulations that will contribute to wet loose slides. Even small wet slides can be hazardous due to their high density.  Don't underestimate the potential for a small avalanche to knock you down or over a hazard below.  If the sun comes out there will be additional wet loose activity on higher elevation sunny slopes. Direct sunshine will rapidly increase the hazard on slopes with significant amounts of heavy, wet snow. 

     

     

     

    (4/2/2025)

    Skier triggered wet loose avalanche near Worthington Glacier toe.

    Photo: Gareth Brown

Avalanche Discussion

Observed Avalanche Activity last 72 hours: 

4/15- Multiple avalanches were triggered at the 4/4 deep persistent weak layer size D2-3 involving skiers, helicopters and hikers, and snowmachines

Numerous storm slab avalanches likely occurred as well

Forecast Discussion:

DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST.   Significant snowfall over the last 48+ hours has steadily increased the avalanche hazard.  Consistent snowfall with limited breaks for the last couple of weeks has resulted in several feet of snow accumulation that needs time to settle. The most recent wet and heavy snow is sitting on top of drier, less consolidated layers. This is creating a top-heavy setup that is likely to produce avalanches over the next couple of days at least. Expect this to be a widespread issue in all mid to upper elevation areas through our forecast zones. There have been limited observations due to poor weather recently. As things settle down, we should be getting more specific information on how this situation is progressing. Stay tuned for updates, and in the meantime, make cautious terrain choices while assessing conditions.

You can reduce your hazard by doing the following: 

Limit travel on or below slopes steeper than 32 degrees

Travel with partners who are competent in snowpack assessment and rescue techniques

Travel one at a time on steep terrain and use a spotter. 

Limit travel in avalanche terrain when hazards are elevated

Make travel plans based on your ability to handle unexpected or hazardous situations. 

Know your personal risk tolerance and act accordingly

 

Additional Information:

Watch out for cornices. This is the time of year when cornices begin to fail naturally.  Cornice fall will have the potential to create very large destructive avalanches.

A weather and snowpack season history is available by clicking on the Season Summary tab, which is located below the bottom line statement once you have entered the full forecast.

Season Snowfall Data

Location 24 hour Snowfall Inches- 4/17 24 hour Snow Water Equivalent Inches Height of Snow April Snowfall Inches Season Total Snowfall Valdez    0    N/O    35      2     N/O     Thompson Pass   12-16" as of 4 am    N/O   N/O     N/O    ~500 Nicks    8" as of 4am    N/O    156    N/O N/O 46 Mile    0     0   20    10 N/O

Regions covered