Avalanche forecast

West Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Be prepared for a change in conditions as a series of storms move into the region. Avoid steep slopes where you identify recent wind drifting. Expect more snow and greater avalanche danger on the volcanoes. Lack of snow and challenging travel still present a significant hazard.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The heaviest snowfall is forecast for the morning, but increasing afternoon winds will drift dry new snow onto leeward aspects. While fresh snow will create the potential for increased avalanche danger, wind should be the factor that determines the size and likelihood of the most consequential avalanches you encounter. 

    Blowing or drifting snow, scoured snow surfaces on windward slopes, and stiffer, pillowy-looking drifts are all signs that wind slabs lurk nearby. Look for and simply avoid steep terrain where you see signs of active wind or recent wind loading. With continued thin snowpack conditions, avalanche risk will depend on the terrain in the runout as much as the size of the actual avalanche. 

    You can still find unstable snow in wind-sheltered terrain, especially in areas that receive 1’ or more of new snow or during periods of heavy snowfall. The old surface of crust, firm wind slab, or weak snow should have a poor bond with the cold and dry new snow above. Any small soft slab or loose snow avalanches you trigger may travel farther than expected.

    An example of early-season wind loading. Ground cover is visible in scoured areas while thick slabs form from wind loading.

Avalanche Discussion

Welcome to the 2023-2024 season! The much-anticipated change in the weather is here with the first traces of precipitation showing at some weather stations this afternoon. 

Lower elevations hold little to no snow. Travel at mid-elevations is still quite challenging given low-tide conditions. The lack of snow cover in sheltered terrain - terrain where you might normally travel in stormy conditions - could push you into more open and exposed slopes you would otherwise avoid. 

Reported avalanche activity in the last week was limited to small wet avalanches on solar aspects. Observers agreed that the greatest hazard was the meager snowpack. New snow will barely hide some early-season hazards that were clearly visible in recent weeks.

There is 1’-2’ of snow at mid-elevations with a surface varying from crust, to stiff, unreactive wind slab, to soft snow in shaded and sheltered terrain. The long stretch of sunny days and clear nights initiated the formation of both facets and surface hoar.

An NWAC Forecaster at Crystal found a weak snowpack with faceted grains at and below the surface. Observations from Paradise illustrated a stronger snowpack. Avalanche forecast and snowpack uncertainty are higher than usual given limited observations at the start of the season. However, initial observations show a weaker snowpack in locations closer to the crest that saw colder temperatures over the past week.

Regions covered