Avalanche forecast

East Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Conditions are growing more dangerous by the day as new snow continues to stack up and temperatures warm. Strong wind may also play a role in pushing many slopes over the edge on Sunday, creating large avalanches that could break widely and in surprising ways. Step it way back, and heed signs of instability like shooting cracks, whumphing collapses, and any recent avalanches.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Expect a wide range of conditions on Sunday, depending on where you choose to travel. Time of the day may also play a role to your localized danger, with warming temperatures later. You can choose to steer clear of avalanche terrain by only choosing to travel on lower angled slopes without steep ones above. The most dangerous places will be large, steep alpine cirques at upper elevations. Here, strong wind will add to slab thickness and we could see a round of natural avalanches. However, its the in-between slopes that could be sneaky, with low to mid 30 degree angles at mid-elevations. In all cases, if there is any question the best bet is to avoid steep slopes.

    Look for signs of danger like shooting cracks, whumphing collapses, and recent natural or triggered avalanches. These area all bullseye clues to instability. You can also use test slopes and snowpack tests to check for instabilities as you travel. Near and west of Washington Pass, you may find reactive storm slab avalanches 1.5-2.5 feet deep, even in wind-sheltered terrain. Further east and at lower elevations, triggering slides may still be easy, but they may be smaller, looser, and less cohesive. 

    (12/2/2023)

    A remotely triggered avalanche in adjacent West North zone on a NW aspect at 4800ft. The crown was 50-100cm deep. It ran at the new/old interface, on facets. SS-ASr-R2-D2-I

    Photo: Zack McGill- Cascade Mtn Ascents

Avalanche Discussion

The warmer air and strong wind, and snowfall should hit the pass like a crashing wave on Sunday morning. Theres uncertainty regarding how high freezing levels might rise during the day, but its a warming trend in any case. On Thursday,  our first snow in over a week buried various weak layers like facets, surface hoar, and slick crusts. Expect avalanches to run on this interface. It may plague us for some time to come. The coming week will bring back to back atmospheric rivers with much warmer temperatures and rain to high elevations, likely creating even more dangerous conditions.

It's still early season, and our confidence in the avalanche forecast is low. Approach mountain travel with caution and be ready to make your own assessments. Snow cover is still shallow in many places. Hitting buried rocks, stumps, and creeks may be your most significant hazard of the day.

Anyone can add to the forecast. Let us know what you see in the mountains by submitting an observation.

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