Avalanche forecast

Central Cascades

Central Oregon Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

For Sunday, human triggered avalanches will be likely due to rising temperatures. Rain on snow will lead to dangerous conditions. You can limit your exposure by avoiding being on and below slopes over 30 degrees.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Snow levels will rise to 7,600ft throughout the day, and we can expect heavy rain and strong winds. With rain on new snow, we will possibly see natural avalanches on slopes with enough snow to create a planar surface.  If out in the terrain, you can dig down into the snowpack and look for saturated snow. If you start to see water pooling at a weak layer, this is a sign of  a weakening snowpack. Also, seeing recent avalanches is the #1 sign that you can trigger an avalanche.These slabs will range in size and larger terrain will produce larger avalanches. Wet slab avalanches are hard to predict and occur when free water perculates to a weak layer.  We have found weak layers in various locations near the base of our snowpack. 

    Wet loose avalanches will also be possible and will occur on similar slopes as wet slabs. Wet loose is when the surface snow loses it's strength. This will often start at your feet and fan out. The size of these avalanches can vary and will be more likley in steep slopes. Be mindful in terrain with exposure and terrain traps (cliffs, gulleys, steep forested slopes). If you start to see the surface snow getting slushy,  roller balls and/or loose wet avalanches, stick to lower angle terrain.

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    With recent new snow and strong winds, it will be possible to trigger a large wind slab avalanche (especially in the alpine).  If you manage to travel above the snow level, use caution on wind loaded slopes. Look for clues such as large drifts, textured snow and cracking. Use small/safe indicator slopes to assess the snowpack. With weaker snow at the base of our snowpack, this could lead to slabs running farther and wider than usual. 

Avalanche Discussion

On Saturday, I toured Tam McArthur Rim. We experienced a few collapses (aka whumpfs). We also triggered a small wind slab near treeline on north facing terrain. Currently, there are still many exposed logs and rocks in our terrain. Use caution in these early season conditions. 

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