Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You can still trigger very large avalanches that break widely on deeply buried weak layers. Patience and terrain managment is essential. Continue to avoid traveling on or directly under steep, open slopes. Instead seek out smaller, well supported, low angle terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    This persistent slab problem is becoming slightly harder to trigger with time. But, it will also be extremely difficult to determine which slopes may slide and which won't and hitting the wrong spot can result in a very large and destructive avalanche . The Early February Crust (EFC) harbors weak, faceted snow and is now buried underneath a dense 2-4 foot thick slab. This recipe for avalanches exists on most middle and upper-elevation slopes.

    This persistent problem requires patience and strict management. These slabs can trigger in surprising ways. You can trigger them from flat or low-angle terrain long distances away from steep slopes, and they can break far above you. Before triggering an avalanche of this type, you may or may not receive any direct signs of instability. Therefore, your best strategy to avoid triggering a large, unsurvivable avalanche will be to avoid travel on or below slopes greater than 30 degrees. 

    (3/2/2024)

    You can still trigger very large avalanches like this example from last weekend.

    6600 ft on a NE aspect on Darland Mtn. 

    Photo: Katie Warren

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    An uptick in winds could form fresh, sensitive wind slabs near ridgelines, steep gullies, and the base of cliffs. While these avalanches may start small, they could step down to deeper weak layers, become very large, and break widely.

    Look for actively blowing snow, cornice formations, and textured surfaces to identify likely areas for wind slabs to be located. Steer around steep slopes where you identify stiff wind transported snow.

    (2/28/2023)

    Look for pillow-like drifts and wind textured snow to help you identify slopes of concern. 

    Photo: Katie Warren

Avalanche Discussion

NWAC is devastated to report the death of one of our Avalanche Forecasters, Matt Primomo. Tragically, Matt passed away in a non-avalanche accident away from work on Thursday, March 7th. Matt has been a key member of the NWAC family since 2017. His life in the mountains touched so many people. We are absolutely heartbroken. Please join us as we mourn this immense loss with Matt’s family, friends, and community.

Discussion:

Warmer temperatures could lead to some light rain or wet snow at the lower elevations. We don't expect it to be enough for a widespread wet loose avalanche problem, but you could see some fresh rollerball activity.

Observers across much of the Washington Cascades, particularly the eastern slopes and the west-south, have reported numerous large avalanches failing on old snow 2-4 ft below the surface. On Thursday, snowbikers triggered two very large avalanches in the Teanaway, that we suspect ran on the EFC. Earlier this week, we heard about another close call with a persistent slab release to the north in the Blewett Pass area. This large avalanche occurred on an east aspect at 6000 ft. In addition to the fatal avalanche accident on Darland Mt on March 1st, another large avalanche on an adjacent slope was remotely triggered by a group of snowmobilers. This widely propagating avalanche occurred on a north aspect at 6300 ft. You can check out the observation here. NWAC forecasters visiting the accident site also reported this separate large avalanche (avalanche observation). 

Despite the drop in danger, you can still trigger large avalanches that can kill you. The danger has dropped because the likelihood of triggering an avalanche gradually decreases as days pass without loading. However, it's important to note that the potential size has stayed the same. Just because the color changed doesn't mean you can't trigger a large avalanche that could ruin your day and many other people's day. 

You're rolling the dice if you decide to ride in steep avalanche terrain. These persistent slab problems require persistent patience. It's not worth jumping into larger terrain features just for the pleasure of riding untracked snow. That action could result in you being pushed at high speeds into rock, trees, or suffocating under several feet of snow. I encourage you to continue to exercise patience.

You can add to the avalanche forecast. Submit your observation here.

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