Avalanche forecast

Blues

Wallowa Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wet avalanches remain possible as the upper snowpack has become weak from a prolonged period of warm temperatures.  The wet snow may become covered by new drier snow but will take some time to stabilize as temperatures drop.  At higher elevations in exposed terrain, new snow could be blown into drifts and wind slabs could become sensitive by this afternoon. 

This forecast is sponsored by La Grand Sno-Drifters Snowmobile Club. 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Where there is 2 feet or more of snow in the Blues, wet loose avalanches big enough to take you for a ride are still possible.  The upper snowpack has become unstable by 10-plus days of above-freezing temperatures.  By mid-morning yesterday, I could trigger roller balls that entrained additional snow on a Northwest aspect in terrain steeper than 30 degrees.  A cooling trend is underway, but the snowpack needs additional time with colder temperatures to lock back up.  

    To avoid this type of avalanche, stay off of and out from underneath terrain greater than 30 degrees where you find wet snow.  If you step off of your machine and sink up to your boot tops in wet sloppy snow, seek out terrain less than 30 degrees. 

    Yesterday, I found wet saturated snow up to 2.5' down from the surface with water pooling around several crusts in the snowpack.  It is not out of the question for a rider to trigger a wet loose avalanche that could gouge down deeper to a stout crust and create a wet slab avalanche taking most of the snowpack with it.  In the right (or more like wrong!) terrain, this could be catastrophic. 

    Photo: Caleb Merrill

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    A few inches of new snow are likely today in the Blues with increasing winds out of the West/Northwest.  You may see shallow wind slab development in exposed terrain by later this afternoon.  Look for signs of wind slabs along ridgelines such as a rippled snow surface and pillow-like formations.  Expect these to be small, up to 6" deep.  Use small test slopes no taller than a two-story house to test the reactivity of wind slabs as you ride or ski over them.  Avoid wind-loaded terrain where the consequences of even a small wind slab could carry you over consequential terrain or into a gully/creek where the debris could pile up deeper.  

    (2/20/2024)

    Wind Slab development.  Photo: Caleb Merrill

Avalanche Discussion

There is a large amount of variability in the depth of snow in the Blues.  The last 10 days of warm temperatures have melted much of the snow off of South, West, and East aspects below 5500'.  Give the snowpack time to stabilize as we get cooler temperatures through early next week.  Over the next few days, we could see up to 6" of new snow in the Blues, and where it falls on a snowpack of 2-4 feet, it will likely bond well to the moist/wet snow surface.  As we get this fresh snow, get curious about how well the new snow is bonding to the old snow surface.  Pull the new snow away from the old snow with your hand and see how well it is bonded.  Ride over small steeper test slopes to give you an indication of the sensitivity of the new snow.  Continue to dig down a couple of feet in the snowpack and observe to what depth wet snow exists.  Check out a recent observation from the Blues here. 

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No danger rating has been issued for the lowest elevation band in the Blues (3000'-4000') due to the lack of snow in that zone. If we receive significant low elevation snow we will begin forecasting for that zone again.

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