Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Unseasonably warm temperatures and strong sun are creating unstable conditions on all aspects and at all elevations. Wet avalanches are difficult to predict - there is a high level of uncertainty as to where, when, or how many will occur. The only way to reduce risk is to avoid travel on and under steep slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2–3

    Saturday morning will mark 48 hours since temperatures climbed well above freezing, and they are not forecast to drop until the middle of next week. Cornice falls, wet loose, wet slab, and glide avalanches are all likely as the upper layers of snow rapidly melt, water filters through the snowpack, and the bonds that hold the mountains together come undone.

    It’s impossible to predict where and when these will occur. The only remedy is to stay out of the way. Stick to low-angle slopes with minimal exposure to steep terrain overhead.  Don't linger in gullies that connect to avalanche terrain above. There is little reason to recreate on steep slopes as the snow becomes even more sticky, gooey, and unsupportable. Travel conditions will only further deteriorate. It’s worth noting that small avalanches or cornice falls can trigger a much larger avalanche lower on the slope.

    (3/15/2024)

    Large wet loose avalanches on the south side of Table Mt. While this slope commonly produces wet avalanches, the number and size are notable. At least one cleared the bench and ran into the gully below.

    Photo: Julz Holder - Grounding Truth

Avalanche Discussion

While the persistent slab avalanche problem was dropped from the list, that doesn’t mean it’s not out there.  Avalanche control work produced another D3 that probably released in the same layer of buried surface hoar responsible for avalanches earlier in week (add obs link). But when it comes to terrain choices, is it really the kind of day where you are going to avoid the dangers of all the wet snow avalanche problems out there to get to a slope where you might trigger a persistent slab avalanche? The answer for most people in most terrain would be a ‘nope’.

Observers in the Baker BC reported an uptick in avalanche activity with wet loose to D2.5 on southerly aspects. Rollerballs and smaller wet loose avalanches started to appear on shaded northerly aspects at mid-elevations. The snow surface is now wet except on shady slopes in the highest alpine terrain. Heather Meadows hit 60F today, with most mid-elevation weather stations showing high temperatures in the mid-50s. Winds were calm. While clear skies overnight might allow for a shallow refreeze, don’t expect it to last long in most areas.

The Cascades are feeling the effects of a stretch of very warm, sunny weather. It is the first big, spring-like warming event of the year, with high temperatures in the 50’s and freezing levels over 10,000’. Very warm conditions into next week could produce significant slab and loose snow avalanches. When planning for the weekend, consider that this is one of the times when an ‘improbable’ avalanche might actually occur.

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